Safe Airspace – Conflict Zone and Risk Database

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12 Jun

Risk Summary updated: MTPP/Port-au-Prince airport reopened in May, but gangs still control much of the capital.

27 Jun

US KICZ Notam cancelled. There are now no longer any airspace warnings in place for Venezuela.

Israel, Jordan, and Iraq have all re-opened their airspace following last night’s Iranian missile attack on Israel. Iran remains closed to all transits across its western border (Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar). The en-route traffic situation has now largely returned to normal with the exception of Israel and Iran, which most continue to avoid - Iran in particular has a heightened risk of misidentification or interception for overflights at the moment. Middle East transits should consider going south via Egypt/Saudi instead. For full details, map, and analysis see the Special Briefing in your members dashboard.

Israeli military are reporting that the Iranian attack on Israel has concluded. At approximately 1645 UTC Iran launched a series of missiles at Israel, 150-200 in total. A large number made surface contact in Israel. The missiles were observed transiting the Tehran FIR (Iran), and the Amman FIR (Jordan). Jordan (OJAC A0367/24 at 1658Z) and Iraq (ORBB A0422/24 at 1735Z) have closed their airspace by Notam. Israeli airspace was closed during the attack, and is now open again, though EASA and state warnings are active recommending avoidance. Iraq plans to reopen their airspace at 2100Z, as per Notam A0423/23. Turnbacks and diversions are widespread and currently ongoing, especially in the south-east of Ankara FIR (LTAA) and the eastern Mediterranean. LCLK/Larnaca is noted busy with a lot of diversion traffic. Iran has published a series of temporary airway Notams, with a minimum safe level of FL245. These were also noted in the April 2024 Iran missile attack on Israel. Eurocontrol NM will hold a Telecon on the situation in approximately 40 minutes, at 1845Z. For full details, map, and analysis see Special Briefing in your members dashboard: https://ops.group/dashboard/briefings/middle-east-israel-october-2024/

A major missile attack has been launched against Israel in the last few minutes. At present the entire country is under a missile warning. Reuters report missiles seen overflying Jordanian airspace, and Israeli military have made a public announcement that Iran has fired large numbers of missiles at Israel. Separately, missiles have been seen flying above the Iranian capital, Tehran. There are no Notams covering the developing situation, but it does appear that Middle Eastern airspace will be heavily impacted as things progress. Further updates will follow.

With the significant escalation in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon over the past 48 hours, a more wide-scale conflict is looking increasingly likely. Israel have hinted that this may include a ground offensive. The risk to flights in both the LLLL/Tel Aviv and OLBB/Beirut FIRs has quickly changed. On Sep 28, EASA issued new Conflict Zone Information Bulletins (CZIB) for Israel and Lebanon, recommending not to operate within the airspace of either country at all flight levels. Check Safeairspace.net for latest updates.

There has been further significant escalation in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon over the past 24 hours, with continued airstrikes in Beirut. The Israeli military have claimed that the Hezbollah leader was killed in an overnight strike.

EASA is now recommending not to operate within the airspace of Israel and Lebanon at all flight levels. They have issued new Conflict Zone Information Bulletins (CZIB) for each country effective today, Sep 28.

None of the other countries who regularly publish airspace warnings (US, UK, Germany, France, Canada, etc) have issued updated airspace warnings yet for either Israel or Lebanon.

There are several long-standing airspace warnings for Lebanon, but the EASA CZIB for Israel is something new. Now that EASA have clearly stated that flights should not operate here, warnings from other countries may follow. Check Safeairspace.net for the latest updates.

Israel carried out a major series of airstrikes on Hezbollah targets, including in Beirut on Sep 23. Several major carriers have suspended flights there. A sustained conflict between Israel and Hezbollah looks increasingly likely. Military activity can put civil aircraft at increased risk of misidentification - especially near the Israel/Lebanon border. We maintain a ‘Do Not Fly’ risk warning for the OLBB/Beirut FIR - several state issued airspace warnings remain in place. See safeairspace.net for a full briefing.

Israel carried out airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon over the weekend, including some in Beirut. This followed well publicised reports of explosions last week. Hezbollah responded with at least one hundred rockets fired into Northern Israel on Sep 22. There is renewed concern that a sustained conflict is now likely. Aircraft operating near the shared border may be at increased risk from military activity. Short notice airspace closures of the LLLL/Tel Aviv and OLBB/Beirut FIRs are also possible if fighting continues to escalate.

Opsgroup member report advising caution regarding take-off data: Sometimes the ATIS is not updated regularly, and you can find yourself calculating performance with outdated data. For our recent departure, the ATIS was the same for two hours, and finally about to taxi we had a runway change with totally different weather data. So we were suddenly around 3 tonnes overweight. There is a big difference between Runway 10 and 28 regarding performance for take off. We usually try to carry as much cargo as possible, but that’s for Runway 10. You can find yourself too heavy for Runway 28, including having to return to gate to unload.

There are secret runway closures at both GVAC/Sal and GNVP/Praia that don’t show up anywhere you would expect them to - like the Notams, for example! Basically the runways at both airports are closed weekday mornings, at GNVP until 30 Nov 24, and at GVAC potentially until Aug 2025. The closure times are slightly different each day. The info only seems to show up in the NavData Change Notices, as it’s now already buried in the AIP. But for any ops involving GVAC or GVNP you’ll likely be missing a bunch of Notams - so make sure you check the Cape Verde official page, as pretty much all the Notams they publish there don’t seem to make it onto the FAA feed or anywhere else you might be checking.

The military have said the security situation is back under control after insurgents broke into the airport and set the presidential jet alight on Sep 17. Several other locations were targeted across the city, and the airport temporarily closed following the terrorist attacks - the first in years to hit Bamako. There are several long-standing airspace warnings for Mali, advising caution at all flight levels due to deteriorating security on the ground, ongoing fighting, terrorist activity, and foreign private military presence with advanced air defense systems.

Air defences were active over the weekend. On Sep 15, a long range ballistic missile fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen was intercepted over central Israel. Fighting was also reported in the far north with a large number of Hezbollah rockets fired across the border. Ops at LLBG/Tel Aviv briefly stopped. These events do not present a significant change to overflight risk in the LLLL/Tel Aviv FIR but are a reminder to be prepared for short notice airspace closures at all times. See safeairspace.net for a full risk briefing.

Ongoing issue in Somalia of aircraft being contacted and given conflicting instructions by fake ATC. There’s an updated HCSM/Mogadishu FIR Notam which clarifies the area in the northern half of the country (i.e. where all these issues have been happening) where Mogadishu ATC (i.e. the real ATC) will only issue level change instructions to aircraft via CPDLC or SATCOM. Bottom line, if you’re overflying up north and get a call on the radio, ignore it. For the full background to all this, check safeairspace.net

Canada have issued a new Notam which amends their airspace warning for Afghanistan. Canadian operators can now overfly any part of the OAKX/Kabul FIR at FL320 or above - they are no longer limited to the P500 and G500 airways in the far east of the country. There’s been no change to the situation in Afghanistan though: there’s no ATC service here at all, overflights must be on specific contingency routes, and there remains an extreme threat to aircraft and crew safety and security on the ground.

In the past 72 hours there have been a series of major changes to GPS Spoofing patterns in the Middle East. Since Saturday morning, instead of the now usual spoofed-to position of OLBA/Beirut, the spoofed-to position has changed to OJAI/Amman Queen Alia (specifically, the midpoint of Runway 08R/26L). Around 1,100 flights have been spoofed to this position in the last 36 hours. However, no significant change to the enroute locations to expect spoofing - these remain the same. Earlier, on Thursday and Friday of the past week, the spoofed-to position had switched to a position in the eastern Mediterranean Sea; that has now stopped. Attached imagery shows the positions of spoofed aircraft in the last 36 hours, with cockpit photos and EFB from a Boeing 777 eastbound enroute. Knowledge of the spoofed-to position is helpful for crews to confirm that spoofing is taking place. See the GPS Spoofing updates page in link for more information.

Over the weekend, Israel carried out airstrikes in southern Lebanon. These were reportedly to prevent imminent rocket and missile attacks by Hezbollah. LLBG/Tel Aviv airport closed temporarily but has since reopened. Hezbollah then responded with their own strikes. A series of Notams are now in effect until Aug 31, restricting overflights of Israeli airspace between the LCCC/Nicosia and OJAC Amman FIRs and closing a number of airway segments affecting east/west transits of Northern Israel - likely due to ongoing military activity.

The Black Sea is one of two major spoofing hotspots at present. This predominantly affects traffic routing Europe-Asia and vv. In a surprise move, Ukraine has taken action directly against the spoofers, who were transmitting from a disused oil rig near Crimea. The Ukrainian Navy destroyed the oil rig, putting an end to this spoofing location. In the past week, we have seen spoofing levels in this area reduce significantly, confirmed by ADS-B data from SkAI and Spirent. The Ukrainian Navy said, “The occupiers used this location for GPS spoofing to endanger civilian navigation. We cannot allow this”. The focus of the spoofing was on maritime vessels, but civilian aircraft receive the same spoofed signals. This does not mean that spoofing is coming to an end in the Black Sea, but this is the first sign of action being taken directly against military spoofing platforms that are causing the GNSS interference issues we are now dealing with. Full spoofing updates are now in the Special Briefing in the OPSGROUP Member Dashboard, see link.

Since Aug 13, a new area of GPS Spoofing has been detected in the very western part of Ukraine, in the vicinity of L'viv (UKLL). Aircraft impacted by the Spoofing encounter have been enroute through Poland (Warsaw FIR), Slovakia (Bratislava FIR), Hungary (Budapest FIR), and Romania (Bucharest FIR). Aircraft types affected in this particular spoof event include Airbus 350, Embraer 195, Airbus 321, and a Boeing 737MAX.

This is a significant development because until now, spoofing on Black Sea routes (which handle most Europe-Asia traffic) had ended by the time westbound aircraft had coasted in over Romania or Bulgaria. Now, it means that spoofing continues to be likely until west of central Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary. This is approx. 450nm or one hours flying later. Equally, eastbound aircraft should now be prepared for spoofing from central Poland onwards. The new spoofing has been confirmed by both Spirent, and SkAI, who monitor these events.

Full details are in a new Special Briefing in your member Dashboard, which now has rolling updates on new GPS Spoofing locations and changes. See link for more.

Egypt has issued a Notam a short time ago, warning Egyptian carriers not to overfly the Tehran FIR tonight between 0100 and 0400 UTC. The full text of the Notam (HECC A0363/24) reads ALL EGYPTIAN CARRIERS SHALL AVOID OVERFLYING TEHRAN FIR. NO FLIGHT PLAN WILL BE ACCEPTED OVERFLYING SUCH TERRITORY, valid 0100-0400Z. Such a Notam from Egypt is very unusual. It is possible that this is an indicator of an Iranian response to Israel, and in turn a potentially large set of airspace disruptions - at the same time, there may be another reason. We suggest monitoring closely.

Update on the Middle East: The situation remains tense: a strike on Israel is expected, but no definite timing. If it does occur, it is likely to happen without much notice.The US is sending the additional Navy cruisers and destroyers – which can shoot down ballistic missiles – to the Middle East and Europe, and the US will also send an additional squadron of fighter jets to the Middle East. KLM has cancelled all flights to Israel until October, with around 10 airlines now doing the same. The ICAO/IATA Contingency Coordination Team (CCT) is now activated for Middle East. All Middle East Airspace currently "Ops Normal". An FAA Information Note is published "Israel/Lebanon /Iran: Heightened tensions Following Multiple Strikes in the Middle East – Aug 2, 2024". Full updates are in the Middle East Briefing in the OPSGROUP Member Dashboard, see link.

Israel is preparing for an attack from Iran and its allies, in response to the death of several high-profile leaders. Iran has indicated that its response will be strong. The impact to civil aviation will include increased risk at airports in Israel, large-scale short notice FIR closures, increased GPS Spoofing, and risk of drones and missiles crossing airways. This risk applies across the Middle East, but especially to operations in/over Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. No definite date or time is likely to be given ahead of the offensive. However as things stand, OPSGROUP estimates that the most likely commencement time is Friday or Saturday night (August 2 or 3). A similar situation occured in April 2024, but we believe that this response will be on a larger scale, and will be more sustained. An aerial attack on Israel by Iran and its allies may last several days, or longer. A full briefing with analysis, airspace impacts, route options, permit info, SafeAirspace levels, and risk assessment is available in the OPSGROUP Members Dashboard (Special Briefings section) - see link.

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