27 Oct 2026 World Airspace Risk Summary Print

Risk Summary
27 Oct 2026

ISSUED BY OPSGROUP
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AFTN KMCOXAAL

Danger

In assessing risk to flight over each countries borders, two scenarios are predominant for civil flight:
1. Risk of shootdown, inadvertent or intentional.
2. Aircraft emergency requiring a landing.

Both these elements are taken into consideration in determining a classification. The highest level of risk here is “Moderate”, on the basis that calling it “high” or “severe” would exaggerate the actual level or risk in landing or overflying the territories concerned.

Classification

Three levels of airspace risk are used in our assessment.
LEVEL 1. Moderate risk - No Fly
LEVEL 2. Assessed risk
LEVEL 3. Caution

A current overflight risk map is maintained at safeairspace.net. We encourage operators to report any new information to report@safeairspace.net.

Guidance

This document is intended to provide operator guidance in determining whether to avoid specific airspaces. Exclusion from this advice, naturally, does not mean that other airspace is risk free.

Information Sources

The countries that issue the most relevant updates for unsafe airspace are:

  • US (FAA) – through Notams and SFARs
  • UK (DFT) – AIP
  • Germany (BMVI) – Notam
  • France (DGAC) - AIC

Operators should note that in general, the Civil Aviation Authorities of the countries whose airspace is determined to be unsafe are unlikely to issue reliable guidance. Read more at safeairspace.net.

LEVEL 1: Moderate Risk - No Fly

For these countries, the basis for inclusion is the highly unstable current events on the ground, and in all cases the ground factions having access to MANPADS or SAMS. We strongly recommend avoiding this airspace entirely. All countries have multiple warnings, and your country of registry is likely to have issued specific instructions not to penetrate these airspaces

Sudan
Oct 2026: Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces continues, with drone attacks again reaching Khartoum. HSSK/Khartoum has resumed domestic and international flights, but attacks near the airport on Oct 19 disrupted operations. Commercial overflights of Sudan remain subject to published contingency routes and prior permission under the ICAO contingency plan.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Sudan Risk Update - 2025

The primary risk is the conflict itself, including drones, military aircraft and air-defence weapons. These threaten civil aircraft at all altitudes, and military activity also puts aircraft and airports on the ground at risk, making unplanned diversions into Sudan hazardous. EASA advises operators not to enter the HSSS/Khartoum FIR over Sudan at any altitude. The UK and Canada also advise against entry. Nearby South Sudan adds an ATC complication, as services are unavailable above FL245 in the HSSS/Khartoum FIR over its territory and contingency procedures apply.



Major events:
Oct 2026: Drone attacks near HSSK/Khartoum disrupted flights. Air defences intercepted drones, but one crashed in a nearby residential area.
May 2026: Sudan reopened international traffic at HSSK/Khartoum. Drone attacks earlier that month had briefly interrupted ops.
Nov 2025: The RSF said it shot down a Sudanese military Il-76 near Babanusa. The army said the aircraft crashed because of a technical fault.
May 2025: Drone strikes hit HSPN/Port Sudan and other infrastructure, briefly disrupting airport ops.
Oct 2024: A foreign-registered cargo aircraft was shot down over North Darfur.
Apr 2023: Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF began, leading to major airspace restrictions and airport closures.
01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2227/26 Italian operators should avoid the HSSS/Khartoum FIR.
14Dec23 France AIC 002/26 French operators should not enter the airspace of Sudan, nor file Sudanese airports as alternates.
18May23 Canada AIC 17/26 Canadian operators should avoid the HSSS/Khartoum FIR due to risks from anti-aircraft weaponry and military activity.
26Apr23 EASA CZIB 2023-01 R8 Operators should not enter the airspace of Sudan at all levels.
21Apr23 Germany AIC 03/26 German operators are prohibited from entering the HSSS/Khartoum FIR.
21Apr23 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) UK operators should not enter the airspace of Sudan due to risks from anti-aircraft weaponry and military activity.
Saudi Arabia
Oct 2026: Saudi airspace remains technically open, but Houthi missile and drone attacks have escalated, repeatedly targeting OERK/Riyadh and other locations across the country. OERK reopened on Oct 18 after more than a week of disruption. Attacks have also been reported near OEDF/Dammam and airports in southwest Saudi Arabia.



The primary risk is sustained missile and drone attacks by Houthi forces in Yemen, with recent strikes demonstrating that the threat extends across Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh. Air-defence responses also create a risk of misidentification and miscommunication - including along overflight routes.

Several states have issued airspace warnings for the OEJD/Jeddah FIR. We recommend avoiding Saudi airspace entirely, including overflights and the use of Saudi airports as en-route alternates. The northern route via Turkey, Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea is the preferred alternative for Europe-Asia traffic.

Major events:
Oct 2026: Repeated Houthi attacks targeted OERK/Riyadh, including the passenger terminal. Attacks also reported near OEDF/Dammam, plus OEAB/Abha, OEGN/Jazan and OENG/Najran in the south.
Oct 2026: Safe Airspace raised Saudi Arabia warning to Level 1 - Do Not Fly.
Sep 2026: A Houthi ballistic missile targeted Riyadh, with subsequent disruption at OERK. Jeddah also closed at short notice during an air-defence response.
July 2026: Yemeni government forces struck the runway at OYSN/Sanaa to prevent an Iranian aircraft from landing. Houthi forces subsequently warned airlines against overflying Saudi Arabia.
2020-2022: Repeated Houthi drone and missile attacks targeted airports in southwest Saudi Arabia.
14Oct26 France Notam LFFF F2118/26 French operators should not enter most of the OEJD/Jeddah FIR except on routes across northern Saudi Arabia or along the western side of the country at FL320 or above. OEJN/Jeddah airport may also be used as an alternate.
13Oct26 Germany Notam EDWW B0804/26 German operators should not enter the OEJD/Jeddah FIR south of 26°N.
11Oct26 USA Notam KICZ A0056/26 Caution for US operators in the OEJD/Jeddah FIR due to potential risks from ongoing military activity and GNSS interference.
09Oct26 EASA CZIB 2026-09-R1 Operators should avoid two areas of Saudi airspace - one in the southeast (RIBOK-BOSUT-MIGDA-RAGNO-MIXUG-DEKLO-OBSAM-SILPA) and one in the northwest (ULBAM-TOTEB-DURMA-LAKSO-SOLAT). Caution is advised in the remainder of the Jeddah FIR.
08Oct26 Canada Notam CZVR F5624/26 Canadian operators are recommended not to enter the OEJD/Jeddah FIR at all levels due to ongoing risks associated with military activity, including drones, missiles and air defence activations. This supercedes the advice found within AIC 17/26.
01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2226/26 Caution to Italian operators in the OEJD/Jeddah FIR where ATC could apply ESCAT procedures with short notice.
11May26 Saudi Arabia SUP ESCAT Procedures ESCAT (Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic) procedures are activated in southern Jeddah FIR due to the conflict in Yemen. This restricts available routes and flight levels, with specific routings for airports in the area. Pilots must maintain a listening watch on ATC frequencies and strictly follow ATC instructions.
29Sep23 France AIC 011/26 French operators should exercise caution in the southwest of the OEJD/Jeddah FIR where ATC could apply ESCAT procedures.
10Aug23 Canada AIC 17/26 Canadian operators advised caution in the OEJD/Jeddah FIR due to potential risk from anti-aviation weaponry and military operations; also due to short notice ESCAT rules in airspace next to Yemen.
17Mar22 USA FAA Information Note Saudi Arabia/Yemen There is a potential risk to ops at Saudi airports and for overflights of the OEJD/Jeddah FIR due to Houthi drone and missile attacks from Yemen and the associated defensive operations.
28Jan21 Saudi Arabia Notam OEJD W0120/21 ESCAT rules may be activated at any time in the south part of the OEJD/Jeddah FIR, when Saudi air defenses are repelling drone and missile attacks from Yemen. Operators will likely be given a change of route directly out of the airspace, or will be directed to land at the nearest airport.
Russia
Oct 2026: Drone attacks continue across Russia. On 6 October, Moscow reported more than 650 Ukrainian drones targeting the capital region, most of them intercepted. Most operators avoid Russian airspace. Those still flying there should expect short-notice closures or reroutes, including during the day. Ukraine’s airspace remains closed to civil aviation, and restrictions remain in place in Russian airspace near the border.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Ukraine and Russia Update March 2022

The primary risk is that civil aircraft could be misidentified or caught in air-defence activity as Russia responds to Ukrainian drones and missiles. EASA advises operators within its scope to avoid Russian airspace west of 60°E at all altitudes. Several countries also restrict flights near the Ukraine border, and GNSS interference adds to the risk.



Major events:
Oct 2026: More than 650 Ukrainian drones reportedly targeted the Moscow region. Most were intercepted, and air-defence activity added to the risk for civil flights.
Jul 2026: EASA extended its recommendation to avoid Russian airspace west of 60°E.
Dec 2024: Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 was shot down near URMG/Grozny during Russian air-defence activity. EASA cites the incident as an example of the risk of misidentification.
Jul 2023 - ongoing: Drone strikes around Moscow have triggered air-defence activity and repeated temporary airport closures.
Feb 2022: Russia invaded Ukraine. Ukraine’s airspace closed to civil aviation, and several countries restricted their operators near the Russia-Ukraine border.
01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2213/26 Italian operators are prohibited from the URRV/Rostov FIR, as well as any Russian airspace within 200 NM of the Russia/Ukraine border. They must do a risk assessment if planning to operate in the UUWV/Moscow, ULLL/St Petersburg, or UWWW/Samara FIRs.
09Jan25 EASA CZIB 2025-01 R3 EASA recommends operators do not enter the airspace of Western Russia (west of longitude 60 Degrees East) at any level due to a risk of misidentification and anti-aircraft fire. A lack of military coordination and defence against Ukranian drone and missile attacks has significantly increased danger to civil aviation. Extensive GNSS interference is also cited.
03Jan25 Germany AIC 03/26 German operators should not enter the UUWV, URRV, ULLL, USSV and UWWW FIRs due to potential risk from military activity.
27Jun24 France AIC 011/26 French operators should not enter the airspace of Russia within 200NM of the FIR boundaries with Ukraine, and exercise caution in the rest of the UUWV/Moscow and URRV/Rostov FIRs.
14Nov22 USA FAA Information Note Russia/Ukraine The Russia/Ukraine conflict spillover risk is increasing. Russia periodically launches missiles targeting Ukraine which transit Moldovan airspace. Reports of comms and GPS jamming outside the conflict zone, particularly over the Black Sea and Caspian Sea. Expanded drone activity, especially around Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
24Feb22 USA Notam KICZ A0005/22 US operators are prohibited from Russian airspace within 160 NM of the FIR boundaries with Ukraine.
24Feb22 Canada AIC 17/26 Canadian operators are prohibited from the URRV/Rostov FIR, and the airspace of Russia within 200nm of the FIR boundaries with Ukraine in the UUWV/Moscow FIR.
Haiti
Oct 2026: FAA restrictions remain in force for covered US operators below 10,000 ft MSL in designated areas of Haiti, including around MTPP/Port-au-Prince. Overflights above 10,000 ft MSL and ops outside the restricted areas do not require FAA authorisation.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Haiti Crisis: Airport Attacked, Aircraft Shot, March 2024

The primary risk is gang gunfire and drone activity against aircraft flying low near MTPP/Port-au-Prince. The FAA reports at least 11 aircraft attacked in the area since February 2024, and keeps covered US operators out of low-level ops in designated areas. Canada, France and the UK also advise against low-level flights in the MTEG/Port-au-Prince FIR. France advises its operators not to serve MTPP/Port-au-Prince.



Major events:
Sep 2026: The FAA extended its low-altitude restrictions.
Nov 2024: Gunfire hit a Spirit aircraft approaching MTPP/Port-au-Prince. A JetBlue aircraft later found a bullet hole after returning to KJFK/New York.
March-May 2024: Gang violence and attacks forced MTPP/Port-au-Prince to close for nearly three months.
01Sep26 USA Notam KICZ A0046/26 US operators are prohibited from operating below 10,000ft MSL in parts of Haiti airspace around MTPP/Port-au-Prince, including an additional 17 NM area to the north. Overflights above 10,000 ft MSL do not require FAA authorization.

11Jun26 Canada AIC 17/26 Canadian operators are recommended not to fly below FL100 within the specified area of MTEG/Port-au-Prince FIR due to risks to aviation from gang activity.

28Aug25 France AIC 011/26 French operators should remain at or above FL100 in Haiti airspace, and not go to MTPP/Port Au Prince airport.
15Nov24 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) UK operators should not enter the airspace of Haiti below 10,000 ft AGL due to the risk of small arms fire.
Iran
Oct 2026: Iran's OIIX/Tehran FIR has reopened to overflights, but multiple countries advise against entering the airspace, and the FAA prohibits flights by US operators in the FIR.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Middle East airspace situation - 2026

The primary risk is misidentification of civil aircraft by Iranian air-defence systems during heightened military tension. Iran remains on high military alert, while missile activity, air-defence operations and the risk of sudden escalation create a high risk at all altitudes. The shoot-down of Ukraine International Airlines flight 752 over Tehran in Jan 2020 shows how quickly this can affect civil aviation.



Major events:
Oct 2026: Iran's airspace remains open to overflights.
Mar 2026: OIIX/Tehran FIR closed following US and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation.
Jun 2025: Israel and Iran exchanged missile strikes, prompting renewed airspace warnings.
Oct 2024: Israel and Iran exchanged missile attacks, leading to widespread airspace avoidance.
Jan 2020: Iran shot down Ukraine International Airlines flight 752 over Tehran after misidentifying it as a hostile target.
14Sep26 France Notam LFFF F2110/26 French operators should not enter the airspace of Iran.
11Sep26 Germany Notam EDWW B0746/26 German operators should not enter the airspace of Iran. Overrides the caution in the previous AIC.
01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2212/26 Italian operators should avoid the OIIX/Tehran FIR.
08Jul26 EASA CZIB 2026-04-R2 Operators should avoid Iran airspace.
15Feb25 Germany AIC 03/26 Caution to German operators in the airspace of Iran due to the potential risk from anti-aviation weaponry.
03Oct24 USA SFAR 117 US operators are prohibited from overflying the OIIX/Tehran FIR due to the risk of misidentification, and unannounced military activities in the region.
03Oct24 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) UK operators should not enter the OIIX/Tehran FIR due to potential risk from anti-aviation weaponry.
09Apr20 France AIC 011/26 French operators should not overfly the western half of the country (everywhere west of 54 Degrees East longitude); overflights of the eastern half should be at or above FL320.
17Feb20 USA Notam KICZ A0016/20 US operators should exercise caution in the overwater airspace in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Avoid the airways nearest to the OIIX/Tehran FIR whenever possible, to reduce the risk of miscalculation or misidentification by air defence systems.
10Jan20 Canada AIC 17/26 Canadian operators should not enter the OIIX/Tehran FIR, due to the potential risk from anti-aviation weaponry and military operations.
Yemen
Oct 2026: Yemen remains an active conflict zone, and the vast majority of Yemeni airspace (the OYSC/Sanaa FIR) should be avoided. Several countries prohibit aircraft from overflying any land portion of the FIR. US operators can still use offshore routes UT702 and M999, while other countries permit flights on overwater portions of Yemeni airspace. The security situation has deteriorated sharply since Sep 2026, with renewed fighting between Houthi and Saudi-backed government forces and an increase in missile and drone attacks. Saudi airspace to the north and Somali airspace to the south also carry risks.

The primary risk is intentional targeting by Houthi forces and other groups with access to sophisticated missiles, drones and anti-aircraft weaponry. Civil aircraft are also exposed to the wider military activity, including Saudi-led airstrikes and Houthi missile and drone attacks.

Major events:
Oct 2026: Fighting has intensified between Houthi and Saudi-backed government forces, particularly around the Bab el-Mandeb area.
Oct 2026: OYAA/Aden airport was targeted - a missile landed near the runway as a Cairo flight was approaching and the flight was diverted to Jeddah.
Jul 2026: Yemeni government forces struck the runway at OYSN/Sanaa airport to prevent an Iranian aircraft from landing.
Dec 2024 - ongoing: OYSN/Sanaa Airport remains closed following Israeli airstrikes.
Jan 2024: US and UK airstrikes against Houthi targets began following missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea.

01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2220/26 Italian operators should avoid OYSC/Sanaa FIR and the southern Red Sea.
07Jan25 USA SFAR 115 US operators are prohibited from overflying the OYSC/Sanaa FIR north of a line KAPET-NODMA-IMPAG-TIMAD-PARIM-RIBOK (i.e. the landmass). The US FAA specifically mentions UT702 and M999 offshore routes as being ok to use.
13Feb24 Germany AIC 03/26 German operators are banned from the airspace over the Yemen landmass within the OYSC/Sanaa FIR up to (but not including) airway B400 over the ocean. For the rest of Yemen’s oceanic airspace, operators should exercise caution. (Check map here.)
17Mar22 USA FAA Information Note Saudi Arabia/Yemen There is a potential risk to ops at Saudi airports and for overflights of the OEJD/Jeddah FIR due to Houthi drone and missile attacks from Yemen and the associated defensive operations.
04Nov21 France AIC 011/26 French operators should avoid Yemeni airspace, except at or above FL320 in the oceanic airspace in the east of the OYSC/Sanaa FIR (airway B400 and east of).
09Feb21 Canada AIC 17/26 Canadian operators should not enter the OYSC/Sanaa FIR, including the oceanic part up to airway UT702, due to the potential risks from anti-aviation weaponry and military operations
31Aug17 EASA CZIB 2017-07R20 Operators should avoid the Yemen Sana’a FIR over land, and exercise caution on oceanic routes east of airway B400.
08Sep15 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) UK operators should avoid the OYSC/Sanaa FIR except airways N315, UL425 and R401, due to potential risk from anti-aviation weaponry.
Lebanon
Oct 2026: OLBB/Beirut FIR remains high risk, with Israeli military activity continuing despite ceasefire efforts. EASA and several countries advise against entering Lebanese airspace, with limited exceptions for flights to and from Beirut that approach and depart over the sea.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Middle East airspace situation - 2026

The primary risk is military activity linked to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, including Israeli airstrikes and the risk of misidentification by air defence systems. Although ceasefire efforts have reduced the intensity of fighting, military operations have continued - particularly in southern Lebanon. The risk to civil aviation remains high.



Major events:
Feb-Jul 2026: Israeli airstrikes continued in Lebanon despite ceasefire extensions.
Oct 2024: Israel launched a ground operation against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
Nov 2023 onwards: Regional conflict involving Israel and Hezbollah led to prolonged disruption and heightened security risks in Lebanese airspace.
09Oct26 UK Notam EGTT V0024/26 UK operators should avoid Lebanon airspace, except for flights to/from OLBA/Beirut airport over the sea.
11Sep26 Germany Notam EDWW B0747/26 German operators should not enter the airspace of Lebanon.
01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2219/26 Italian operators should not enter the OLBB/Beirut FIR.
01Sep26 France Notam LFFF F1805/26 French operators should avoid Lebanon airspace, except for flights to/from OLBA/Beirut airport over the sea.
15Aug26 Lebanon Notam OLBB A0191/26 Warning of GPS jamming and spoofing in the OLBB/Beirut FIR, pilots should stick to conventional ATS routes.
08Jul26 EASA CZIB 2026-06-R2 Operators should avoid Lebanon airspace, except for operations to/from OLBA/Beirut that approach from the sea or depart over the sea.
01Aug24 Canada AIC 17/26 Canadian operators should not enter the OLBB/Beirut FIR due to potential risk from military activity.
23Apr21 USA FAA Information Note Syria/Israel An errant surface-to-air missile fired by Syrian air defences missed its target and landed in Israel on 22 Apr 2021. Syria is actively using long range anti-aircraft weaponry which poses a risk to civil aircraft in the region. While US operators are banned from the OSTT/Damascus FIR, the FAA warns the threat is extended to adjacent FIRs in the Eastern Mediterranean region including the LLLL/Tel Aviv, OJAC/Amman, OLBB/Beirut and LCCC/Nicosia FIRs. Use caution if operating in the area. 
14Apr18 USA Notam KICZ A0009/18 Exercise caution within 200 NM of the Damascus FIR due to military activity. Possibility of GPS interference, communication jamming, and long-range surface to air missiles in the area.
Libya
A civil war has been ongoing since 2014. Some progress made in Oct 2020 with the formation of a new government, but Libya remains an active conflict zone with armed clashes between various rival militia groups across the country. There is a high risk to civil aircraft. Libyan airspace (HLLL/Tripoli FIR) should be avoided entirely. Total flight ban for US operators, and several other countries have warnings in place.

The primary risk is a misident by Libyan air defense systems, or by militia who have threatened to shoot down aircraft operating in western Libya, including HLLM/Tripoli Mitiga airport. Military activity reported over the high-seas which is either operating as OAT or not in control with ATC. Risk remains high across Libya at all flight levels, and avoidance of all airspace and airports is strongly recommended.

The secondary risk is that reliable ATC services cannot be guaranteed. The past few years have seen regular ATS and radar outages across the HLLL FIR airspace, and severe limitations in VHF capability, with operators having to communicate with Malta ATC for guidance.

Read: Libya Airspace Update, Feb 2024 (OPSGROUP article)

Major events:
August 2023: Major evacuation of aircraft from Tripoli due to violent clashes and gunfire at Mitiga airport. Read: Tripoli mass evacuation of aircraft (OPSGROUP article)
July 2023: Italy cancelled its 10-year ban on flights to/from Libya. Aircraft are no longer banned from Italian airports and airspace if they want to fly from Libya.
Aug 2022: Militia air defense forces claimed to have shot down a US drone operating in the vicinity of Benghazi during a period of increased tensions and threats of renewed violence between competing militias vying for control of Tripoli.
June 2022: Failed attempt by militia to enter Tripoli to seize control of government offices, resulting in armed clashes and suspension of flights at HLLM/Mitiga airport.
Jan 2020: Multiple airstrikes targeting HLLM/Mitiga airport. Videos on social media showing planes landing at the airport as shells are falling in the background.
Nov 2019: Militia advancing on the capital, Tripoli, declared a no-fly-zone around the city, threatening to shoot-down civil aircraft attempting to fly to HLLM/Mitiga airport.
2014: HLLT/Tripoli airport closed after clashes between rival militias destroyed most of the airport's facilities. The airport remains closed to this day; most flights operate out of HLLM/Mitiga airport.

30Jul26 France Notam LFFF F1625/26 French operators are advised not to enter the HLLL/Tripoli FIR at any level. The following airway segments are exempt: R778 (DITAR KUFRA TONBA), M999 (Zarzaitine SEBHA) and G655 (SEBHA GARIN) provided you maintain FL320 and above.
28May26 France AIC 011/26 French operators should avoid Libyan airspace except on routes M999 and G655/M214 above FL320, with a robust risk assessment required before entry.
20Mar25 USA SFAR 112 US operators are prohibited from the HLLL/Tripoli FIR, but are permitted to operate in the overwater airspace off the north coast of Libya and a tiny portion in the south of the FIR over Chad.
19Apr21 Germany AIC 03/26 German operators should avoid Libyan airspace.
18Feb20 Canada AIC 17/26 Canadian operators should not enter the HLLL/Tripoli FIR, due to the potential risk from anti- aviation weaponry and military operations.
31Mar17 EASA CZIB 2017-02R20 Operators should avoid the airspace of Libya below FL320, except for flights to airports located on the coast (as long as you approach from the sea, coordinate with local authorities and ATC, and conduct a robust risk assessment). Above FL320, operators should exercise caution and take potential risks into account.
12Jun15 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) UK operators are no longer prohibited, but are still strongly advised not to enter the HLLL/Tripoli FIR due to risk posed by anti-aircraft weaponry. This advice supersedes what is currently contained in the AIP.
Ukraine
Ukraine closed its entire airspace to all civil traffic on Feb 24, 2022, due to a military invasion by Russia. There is an ongoing active conflict in Ukraine between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Russia, Belarus and Moldova have closed large sections of their own airspace near to their FIR boundaries with Ukraine.

All the major countries who regularly issue airspace warnings (the US, UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy) have since issued total flight bans for Ukraine due to risk from military activity at all levels. (Several other countries have also issued flight bans for Ukraine but we have not listed them all here due to sheer volume).

The primary risk is an unintended targeting of civil aircraft by military, including misidentification (as with MAS17, UIA752), or confusion.

The secondary risk is potential lack of Ukrainian Air Traffic Control Service at short notice (Cyber Attack), and other unforeseeable non-normal operating environments for civil aircraft.

Read: OPSGROUP article: Ukraine and Russia Update March 2022



Prior to February 2022, there were two areas of concern in Ukraine - the conflict in the far east of the country (affecting UKDV/Dnipro FIR) and the double claim over ATC and airspace in Crimea (UKFV/URFV/Simferopol FIR).
22Sep26 Ukraine Notam UKBV A0081/26 Ukraine airspace remains closed to all civil flights (since Feb 2022) due to Russian invasion and ongoing conflict.
01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2213/26 Italian operators are prohibited from the airspace of Ukraine, including the contested UKFV/Simferopol FIR over Crimea (claimed by Russia as the URFV FIR).
27Jun24 France AIC 011/26 French operators should not enter the airspace of Ukraine, including the contested UKFV/Simferopol FIR over Crimea (claimed by Russia as the URFV FIR).
14Nov22 USA FAA Information Note Russia/Ukraine The Russia/Ukraine conflict spillover risk is increasing. Russia periodically launches missiles targeting Ukraine which transit Moldovan airspace. Reports of comms and GPS jamming outside the conflict zone, particularly over the Black Sea and Caspian Sea. Expanded drone activity, especially around Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
24Feb22 EASA CZIB 2022-01 R14 Operators should not enter the airspace of Ukraine.
24Feb22 USA Notam KICZ A0004/22 US operators are are prohibited from the airspace of Ukraine, including the contested UKFV/Simferopol FIR over Crimea (claimed by Russia as the URFV FIR).
24Feb22 Canada AIC 17/26 Canadian operators are prohibited from the airspace of Ukraine, including the contested UKFV/Simferopol FIR over Crimea (claimed by Russia as the URFV FIR).
24Feb22 Germany AIC 03/26 German operators are prohibited from the airspace of Ukraine, including the contested UKFV/Simferopol FIR over Crimea (claimed by Russia as the URFV FIR).
24Feb22 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) UK operators are prohibited from the airspace of Ukraine, including the contested UKFV/Simferopol FIR over Crimea (claimed by Russia as the URFV FIR).

LEVEL 2: Assessed Risk

Assessed Risk applies to countries that are the subject of airspace warnings by EASA, FAA, UK DFT, German BMVI, French DGAC, but only for specific portions or below certain altitudes

Mali
Oct 2026: Mali remains volatile after coordinated attacks across the country in April. Armed groups remain active, and recent reporting describes continued military drone ops against insurgents. Mali and Algeria reopened their airspace to each other’s flights on July 10, ending the restrictions introduced in 2025.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Mali Airspace Risk Update - 2026

The primary risk is the fighting, including drone activity and anti-aircraft weapons. The FAA warns US operators to use caution at all altitudes. Other countries set minimum levels from 25,000 ft AGL to FL320, and France advises against using GABS/Bamako, even as an alternate. These warnings cover the parts of the GOOO/Dakar FIR and DRRR/Niamey FIR over Mali. Follow current ASECNA routes and restrictions, especially in the north.



Major events:
Jul 2026: Mali and Algeria reopened their airspace to each other’s flights after a year of restrictions.
Apr 2026: On Apr 25, armed groups including JNIM and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front launched coordinated attacks on government and military targets across Mali. Gunfire and explosions were reported near GABS/Bamako, and fighting has continued.
Sep 2024: Militants attacked the airport at GABS/Bamako and set fire to the presidential aircraft.
Aug 2020: Airports closed for 2 days during the coup, but Bamako ACC stayed open and overflights continued.
16Sep26 France Notam LFFF F1912/26 French operators are advised to remain at or above FL320 in the portions of the GOOO/Dakar and DRRR/Niamey FIRs overhead Mali. GABS/Bamako should not be used at this time (including as an alternate) due to a deteriorating security situation.
01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2214/26 Italian operators should avoid the airspace of Mali below 25000 ft AGL.
07Aug26 Canada Notam CZUL H5014/26 Canadian operators are recommended to remain at or above FL320 while in portions of the GOOO/Dakar and DRRR/Niamey FIRs overhead Mali due to risk of anti-aircraft fire and military activity.
04Aug26 United Kingdom Notam EGTT V0026/26 Operators should not enter the portions of the GOOO/Dakar and DRRR/Niamey FIRs over Mali below 25,000 ft AGL due to risks posed by anti -aircraft fire and military activity.
20Feb26 USA Notam KICZ A0023/26 US operators advised to exercise caution in Mali airspace at all levels due to ongoing fighting, militant activity, state-run paramilitary presence, and advanced air defense systems.
20Feb26 USA FAA Information Note Caution for US operators in Mali airspace at all levels due to ongoing fighting, expanding militant activity, and the presence of a state-run paramilitary force operating advanced air defense, aircraft, UAS and electronic warfare systems.
07Apr25 Mali Notam GOOO A0387/25 & DAAA A1040/25 Mali and Algeria have a reciprocal airspace ban in place due to ongoing political disputes. Algeria has banned flights from the DAAA/Alger FIR if they are operating to or from airports in Mali. Mali goes one step further - they ban flights from their airspace if arriving from or heading into Algerian airspace, regardless of whether a landing is planned at an Algerian airport.
19Nov24 Germany AIC 03/26 German operators should not enter the airspace of Mali below FL260.
17Mar23 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) Caution to UK operators in the airspace of Mali due to the potential risk from anti-aviation weaponry.
09Apr20 France AIC 011/26 French operators overflying the part of the DRRR/Niamey FIR located above the Malian territory should be at or above FL320.
31Mar17 EASA CZIB 2017-01R21 Operators should avoid the airspace of Mali below FL260, particularly the northeast of the country.
Somalia
Oct 2026: Somalia remains highly unstable, with ongoing militant attacks and limited government control in parts of the country. In the north, Somaliland is seeking its own overflight permits, while Somalia says it controls the entire HCSM/Mogadishu FIR. Crews may also receive unauthorized ATC instructions.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Somalia ATC Conflict - 2025

The primary risk is from militant groups with anti-aircraft weapons and ongoing military activity, especially at lower altitudes. EASA advises against ops at or below FL260. US rules prohibit US operators below FL260, with a limited overwater exception for certain flights to or from HDAM/Djibouti. Germany’s warning excludes airspace east of 54°E. There is also a risk of unauthorized ATC instructions and conflicting overflight-permit claims in the north.



Major events:
Nov 2025: Somalia’s CAA reaffirmed its authority over the entire HCSM/Mogadishu FIR. Somaliland has separately said overflights need its permission, creating a dispute over permits in the north.
Feb 2024: OPSGROUP received several reports of aircraft within the Mogadishu FIR being contacted by a ‘fake controller’ on the same frequency, issuing conflicting instructions. More info here.
May 2022: Class A airspace implemented in the HCSM/Mogadishu FIR above FL245. More info here.
May 2020: An Embraer EMB-120 was shot down while on approach to Bardale airstrip, killing all 6 people on board. It was believed to have been accidentally hit by Ethiopian forces operating against Al-Shabaab.
01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2225/26 Italian operators should avoid the HCSM/Mogadishu FIR below 25000 ft AGL.
14Dec23 France AIC 002/26 French operators should stay at or above FL260 in the HCSM/Mogadishu FIR, except in the overwater portion.
27Dec22 USA SFAR 107 US operators are prohibited operating below FL260 in the airspace of Somalia (the HCSM/Mogadishu FIR). Aircraft transiting through the airspace to or from HDAM/Djibouti airport across the border in the airspace of Ethiopia (the HAAA/Addis Ababa FIR) are permitted to operate below FL260 providing they remain overwater and fly a published instrument procedure or stay under the direction of ATC.
09Feb21 Canada AIC 17/26 Canadian operators overflying the HCSM/FIR Mogadishu FIR should be at FL260 or above, due to the potential risk from anti- aviation weaponry and military operations.
13Apr18 Somalia Notam A0035/18 Somalia themselves published a Notam in 2018 saying that armed conflict and a lack of Aeronautical information present a safety and security risk to aircraft.
31Mar17 EASA CZIB 2017-05R20 Operators should avoid the airspace of Somalia below FL260.
04Feb16 Germany AIC 03/26 German operators should not overfly the HCSM/Mogadishu FIR below FL260, except for east of 54E (oceanic airspace).
15Jan16 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) UK operators should avoid the HCSM/Mogadishu FIR below 25,000 ft AGL, due to the potential risk from anti-aircraft weaponry.
Kuwait
Oct 2026: Kuwait has reopened to overflights through the OKAC/Kuwait FIR, restoring the central routing option between Europe and the Middle East via Turkey-Iraq-Kuwait-Bahrain-Qatar-UAE. Overflights are permitted between the OBBB/Bahrain and ORBB/Baghdad FIRs at FL280 and above.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Middle East airspace situation - 2026

The primary risk remains the potential for missile and drone activity linked to the wider regional conflict. Kuwait has previously been directly affected by Iranian attacks, including a strike on OKKK/Kuwait airport that damaged Terminal 1 in June. Although the threat from Iranian activity has eased recently, the wider risk of escalation remains.



Major events:
Oct 2026: Kuwait reopened to limited overflights between Bahrain and Baghdad FIRs at FL280 and above.
Aug 2026: EASA issued revised guidance for the Persian Gulf following the US-Iran conflict, identifying continued risks from missile and drone activity, air defence operations and military activity.
Feb-Jul 2026: OKAC/Kuwait FIR was closed and reopened several times during the Iran conflict.
14Oct26 France Notam LFFF F2115/26 French operators should exercise great caution in the airspace of Kuwait.
14Jul26 EASA CZIB 2026-07R3 Operators should avoid airspace over the waters of the Persian Gulf within Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and UAE FIRs, plus the Gulf of Oman within the Muscat FIR west of 58 degrees east, except as necessary for arrivals/departures from aerodromes within the affected FIRs.
Congo DRC
Oct 2026: Fighting continues between Congolese forces and AFC/M23 rebels in North Kivu around FZNA/Goma, near the Rwandan border. AFC (Congo River Alliance) is a rebel alliance that includes the M23 movement, and the front line remains unpredictable.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Africa Airspace Risk: Jet Shot in Rwanda - 2023

The primary risk is anti-aircraft fire and other military activity in eastern DRC, particularly at low altitude and near airports in conflict areas. The UK advises operators to avoid an area within 200 NM of the eastern boundary of the FZZA/Kinshasa FIR, between 1°N and 5°S. Canada recommends that its operators remain at or above FL260 in a defined area near the Rwanda and Burundi borders.



Major events:
Feb 2026: The AFC/M23 rebel coalition claimed an explosive-drone attack targeting FZIC/Kisangani, showing its reach extends beyond North Kivu/Goma.
Jan 2025: M23 rebel forces took control of Goma during heavy fighting, and FZNA/Goma closed.
Feb 2024: A drone attack damaged a parked military aircraft at FZNA/Goma. The aircraft appeared to be the target.
Jan 2023: Rwanda fired on a DRC fighter near Goma, saying it had entered Rwandan airspace. The damaged aircraft landed at FZNA/Goma.
16Apr26 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) UK operators are recommended not to enter FZZA/Kinshasa FIR within 200 NM of the eastern boundary, between the 1st parallel north and the 5th parallel south, due to potential risk from anti-aircraft weaponry.
25Jul25 Canada AIC 17/26 Canadian operators should not enter an easterly portion of DROC airspace (the FZZA/Kinshasa FIR) near the Rwanda/Burundi borders below FL260 due to the potential risk from anti-aircraft weaponry.
Pakistan
Oct 2026: The OPKR/Karachi FIR and OPLR/Lahore FIR remain open to international traffic, but Indian-registered aircraft and Indian operators are still barred. The ceasefire between India and Pakistan has largely held since May 2025, but the situation remains fragile and military activity could resume with little warning. Separately, tensions along the Afghanistan border have risen again.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Pakistan/India Airspace Update - 2025

The primary risk is militant activity and anti-aircraft weapons, including missiles that can be fired from the ground, especially at lower altitudes in western Pakistan. In Kashmir, renewed fighting between India and Pakistan could put aircraft at risk of being mistaken for military targets. EASA advises against flights below FL260 over Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. France, Germany and Italy also advise caution at lower altitudes in the OPKR/Karachi FIR and OPLR/Lahore FIR.



Major events:
Oct 2026: Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan’s Kunar and Helmand provinces renewed cross-border fighting.
Feb 2026: Cross-border strikes between Pakistan and Afghanistan escalated, but no new airspace closures or overflight bans were issued. Commercial traffic continued through the OAKX/Kabul FIR, including on routes P500 and G500.
May 2025: India and Pakistan exchanged strikes and shelling in Kashmir. A ceasefire followed, but both countries continue to bar each other’s aircraft.
Jan 2024: Iran carried out missile and drone strikes against a militant group in western Pakistan.
Dec 2023 - ongoing: Pilots reported GPS spoofing around the OPLR/Lahore FIR, particularly near OPLA/Lahore.
Feb-Aug 2019: Pakistan closed its airspace to overflights after major clashes with India.
01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2224/26 Italian operators should avoid the airspace of Pakistan below 25000 ft AGL.
29Oct20 Germany AIC 03/26 Caution to German operators below FL260 in the airspace of Pakistan due to potential risks from anti-aviation weaponry.
09Apr20 France AIC 011/26 French operators overflying Pakistan airspace should be at FL260 or above.
10Jan18 EASA CZIB 2018-02 R21 Operators should not enter the Baluchistan province (southwestern part of Pakistan) or the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (northwestern part of Pakistan) below FL260.
Ethiopia
Oct 2026: Government-aligned forces have retaken Mekelle after Tigrayan forces withdrew from the city on 3 October. Ethiopian Airlines resumed flights to HAMK/Mekelle on 11 October, but fighting and wider tensions in northern Ethiopia continue.

The primary risk is armed conflict, including drone, artillery and anti-aircraft activity, particularly in Tigray, Afar and Amhara. The UK advises operators to consider the risk when overflying these regions. Italy and Germany warn of military threats across the HAAA/Addis Ababa FIR. EASA advises risk assessment below FL260, especially north of 8.5°N. French operators should remain at or above FL320 in specified northern airspace and use great caution below FL320 elsewhere in the FIR.



Major Events:
Oct 2026: Government-aligned forces retook Mekelle. Ethiopian Airlines resumed flights to HAMK/Mekelle on 11 Oct. Fighting and regional tensions continue.
Sep 2026: Tigrayan forces took control of HAMK/Mekelle. Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to HAMK/Mekelle, HATF/Axum and HASI/Shire as fighting escalated.
Feb 2024: Fighting flared again in Amhara, including air strikes.
Nov 2022: A peace deal was agreed in Tigray. Ethiopian Airlines planned to resume flights to HAMK/Mekelle.
July 2021: HAAA/Addis Ababa FIR airspace below FL290 was closed over Tigray after a military aircraft was reportedly shot down near Mekelle.
Nov 2020: Conflict escalated in Tigray. Airways were closed, airports hit by rockets and missiles fired into Eritrea.
Sep 2018: Ethiopian ATC controllers went on strike. Retired and foreign controllers were brought in to cover ops.
02Oct26 UK Notam EGTT V0030/26 Caution to UK operators overflying the Tigray, Afar and Amhara regions.
01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2228/26 Caution to Italian operators in the HAAA/Addis Ababa FIR due to risks from anti-aircraft weaponry.
30Apr26 EASA Information Note Operators should take potential risk into account below FL260 in the airspace of Ethiopia - in particular northern parts.
02Apr26 Germany AIC 03/26 Caution to German operators in the HAAA/Addis Ababa FIR due to risk posed by anti-aircraft weaponry.
14Dec23 France AIC 011/26 French operators should not fly in the northern section of the HAAA/Addis Ababa FIR below FL320 (previous advice advised against all flights in this area).
17Nov20 OPSGROUP Airspace Risk Warning ARW11-2020 Airspace Risk warning for Ethiopia/Eritrea - Tigray Conflict Zone. Risk to overflights on adjacent airways, and airports in region.
30Aug18 KACTA Letter of Concern Safety Issues in Ethiopia Kenyan ATC Controllers have listed out several major issues with safety both in Ethiopia and in the area shared with Kenyan airspace.
29Aug18 OPSGROUP Research Article Ethiopia Covering Up ATC Strike Ethiopian ATC Controllers went on strike, and ECAA and Ethiopian Airlines used foreign and retired controllers to cover, causing safety concerns.
Afghanistan
Oct 2026: The OAKX/Kabul FIR remains open and uncontrolled, with no ATC service. It continues to carry Europe-Asia traffic rerouted around Middle East restrictions. Renewed Pakistani airstrikes have raised the risk near the border.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: March 2026 - Afghanistan Overflight Update.

The primary risk comes from military activity near the Pakistan border and the lack of ATC across the OAKX/Kabul FIR. EASA, France, Germany and Canada advise against ops below FL320. Italy’s restriction allows P500 and G500 below its 25,000 ft AGL limit, while US operators may use those routes from FL300. With no ATC, aircraft must follow published contingency routes and use TIBA procedures to maintain separation.



Major events:
Oct 2026: Pakistani airstrikes in Kunar and Helmand renewed cross-border fighting. The UN reported civilian casualties, while Pakistan said it had targeted militants.
March 2026: Middle East airspace closures sent more Europe-Asia traffic through the OAKX/Kabul FIR. Cross-border fighting with Pakistan also resumed.
Feb 2026: Cross-border strikes between Pakistan and Afghanistan escalated; commercial traffic continues to transit the FIR including via P500 and G500.
Aug 2021: After the Taliban takeover and allied withdrawal, the OAKX/Kabul FIR lost ATC service and became uncontrolled Class G airspace.
01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2215/26 Italian operators should not enter the OAKX/Kabul FIR below 25000 ft AGL. Airways P500/G500 not affected.
25Aug26 UK Notam EGTT V0028/26 UK Notam extended, no change to warning: caution to UK operators in OAKX/Kabul FIR due to potential risk from heightened military activity.
01Jul25 USA SFAR 119 US operators are permitted to overfly the OAKX/Kabul FIR at FL320 and above, and airways P500/G500 at FL300 and above.
31Oct24 Germany AIC 03/26 German operators should not enter the OAKX/Kabul FIR below FL330.
23Aug24 Canada AIC 17/26 Canadian operators should not enter the airspace of Afghanistan except for overflights at or above FL320.
28Sep23 France AIC 011/26 French operators should not overfly the OAKX/Kabul FIR below FL320.
17Oct17 EASA CZIB 2017-08 R18 Operators should not enter the airspace of Afghanistan below FL320.
Israel
Oct 2026: The LLLL/Tel Aviv FIR remains open, but the security situation is volatile. Missile and drone attacks could trigger short-notice restrictions and disruption. Some international airlines continue to suspend services to LLBG/Tel Aviv.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Middle East airspace situation - 2026

The primary risk is missile and drone activity linked to Iran and regional militant groups, including Hezbollah and the Houthis. Air-defence activity and interceptions create additional risks from falling debris and sudden operational disruption. EASA advises operators to consider the potential risks when assessing operations and routing. Monitor Israeli instructions and be prepared for short-notice changes.



Major events:
Feb-Jul 2026: Israeli airspace closed and reopened several times during the Iran conflict, following US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian missile and drone retaliation.
Jun 2025: Israel and Iran exchanged missile strikes across the region.
Oct 2024: Israel and Iran carried out missile attacks against each other.
Oct 2023: Hamas attacks triggered a major Israeli military response, with Hezbollah also launching attacks from Lebanon.
30Sep26 EASA Information Note Exercise caution in Israel.
16Sep26 Russia Notam UUUU U1257/26 Russian operators are not permitted to depart for Israel between 2200-0400 UTC. Daytime flights are still allowed, but only if the airline has completed its own risk assessment.
01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2223/26 Italian operators should exercise caution in the airspace of Israel.
10Oct23 Canada AIC 17/26 Caution to Canadian operators in the LLLL/Tel Aviv FIR due to potential risk from military activity.
Syria
Oct 2026: The OSTT/Damascus FIR remains high risk, although some regional operators have resumed overflights as an alternative to Iran and Iraq routings. EASA now permits flights at FL260 and above in most of the FIR, but prohibits operations at all levels in the western part. Several countries continue to advise against or prohibit operations in Syrian airspace.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Middle East airspace situation - 2026

The primary risk is ongoing military activity, including Israeli airstrikes and missiles and drones being intercepted over Syria. Drones, rockets and MANPADS are an additional threat at lower levels. The risk is highest in south-western Syria and at lower levels, but can increase across the FIR if the wider regional conflict escalates.



Major events:
Oct 2026: EASA revised its guidance, prohibiting flights in western Syria at all levels and below FL260 elsewhere in the FIR.
Mar 2026: OSTT/Damascus FIR closed following US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
Dec 2024: Syrian airspace closed following the fall of the Assad regime.
Oct 2023: Airstrikes damaged runways at OSDI/Damascus and OSAP/Aleppo.
Feb 2020: An A320 diverted after being caught in crossfire near Damascus.
Sep 2018: A Russian Il-20 was shot down in error near the Syria-Cyprus FIR boundary.
01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2211/26 Italian operators should avoid the OSTT/Damascus FIR.
26Dec24 Canada AIC 17/26 Canadian operators are prohibited from entering the airspace of Syria due to the potential risk from anti- aviation weaponry and military operations. Also caution for flights near the OSTT/Damascus FIR.
27Dec23 USA SFAR 114 US operators are prohibited from entering the OSTT/Damascus FIR.
23Apr21 USA FAA Information Note Syria/Israel An errant surface-to-air missile fired by Syrian air defences missed its target and landed in Israel on 22 Apr 2021. Syria is actively using long range anti-aircraft weaponry which poses a risk to civil aircraft in the region. While US operators are banned from the OSTT/Damascus FIR, the FAA warns the threat is extended to adjacent FIRs in the Eastern Mediterranean region including the LLLL/Tel Aviv, OJAC/Amman, OLBB/Beirut and LCCC/Nicosia FIRs. Use caution if operating in the area. 
09Apr20 France AIC 011/26 French operators should avoid Syrian airspace.
22Oct18 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) UK operators advised of potential risk within 200 NM of the OSTT/Damascus FIR due to anti-aviation weaponry.
14Apr18 USA Notam KICZ A0009/18 Exercise caution within 200 NM of the Damascus FIR due to military activity. Possibility of GPS Interference, Communication jamming, and long-range surface to air missiles in the area.
31Mar17 EASA CZIB 2017-03R19 Operators should not enter the airspace of Syria.
31Mar17 EASA CZIB 2017-03R20 Operators should not fly in the western part of the OSTT/Damascus FIR (west of the ZELAF–BASEM–LOTAX–LATEB line). Elsewhere in the FIR, flights below FL260 are also prohibited.
12Jun15 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) UK operators must not enter the OSTT/Damascus FIR.
Iraq
Oct 2026: The US and coalition military mission in Iraq ended on Sep 30, with forces departing Erbil. Iraqi airspace remains open to overflights, but the withdrawal removes a layer of US air defence around ORER/Erbil while armed factions remain active. The risk of missile and drone attacks remains, particularly in the Kurdistan Region.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Middle East airspace situation - 2026

The primary risk remains missile and drone activity linked to regional conflicts, alongside the potential for misidentification by air defence systems and the presence of armed groups with access to anti-aircraft weapons. France, Italy and several other European authorities advise against overflights at any altitude, while the FAA prohibits US operators from flying below FL320. Despite the FIR remaining open, most Europe-Asia traffic continues to route south via Egypt/Saudi or north via the Caucasus/Afghanistan.



Major events:
Oct 2026: US and coalition forces left Erbil, removing a layer of air defence as armed factions remain active.
Mar 2026: ORBB/Baghdad FIR closed following strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation.
Jun 2025: Airspace closed during the Israel-Iran conflict, with missiles and drones transiting Iraq.
Apr 2024: Iraqi airspace closed during Iran's drone and missile attack on Israel.
Oct 2021: US operators were permitted to overfly ORBB/Baghdad FIR at FL320 and above under revised FAA rules.
14Oct26 France Notam LFFF F2111/26 French operators should not enter the airspace of Iraq.
05Oct26 Iraq Notam ORBB A0403/26 Iraq is warning operators to expect GPS jamming and spoofing in the northern part of the country.
01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2221/26 Italian operators should avoid the ORBB/Baghdad FIR.
08Jul26 EASA CZIB 2026-05-R2 Operators should avoid Iraq airspace.
28Aug25 France AIC 011/26 French operators overflying the ORBB/Baghdad FIR should only be on airways M860/L602/L718 northbound, or UM688 southbound, at or above FL320.
16Oct24 USA SFAR 77 US operators are prohibited from overflying the ORBB/Baghdad FIR below FL320 due to risks posed by terrorist and military activity.
06Oct22 USA FAA Information Note Iraq Ongoing political turmoil, militant activities, and military operations in Iraq poses an elevated risk to aviation and airspace safety. In recent months, militants have fired rockets in Baghdad’s Green Zone, causing flight disruptions at nearby ORBI/Baghdad airport; Iran continues to target northern Iraq with missile and drone attacks; and Turkey has been launching attacks along Iraq’s northern border.
12Sep22 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) UK operators should not overfly the ORBB/Baghdad FIR below FL320, due to potential risk from anti-aviation weaponry.
02Sep22 Germany AIC 03/26 German operators should not overfly the ORBB/Baghdad FIR below FL280.
18Nov21 Canada AIC 17/26 Canadian operators should not overfly the ORBB/Baghdad FIR below FL320, due to the potential risk from anti- aviation weaponry and military operations.
15Jun21 USA FAA Information Note Iraq ORBI/Baghdad airport was targeted by weaponized drones on June 14, for the second time in a week. Local militia continue to show intent to target US interests at airports. This is exposing low level aircraft to risk from rocket and drone activity along with air defence systems.
08Jun21 USA FAA Information Note Iraq Recent rocket and drone attacks on ORBI/Baghdad and a nearby air base. Local militia are showing a renewed intent to target US interests at airports. This is exposing low level aircraft to risk from their activities, along with misidentification or miscalculation by air defence systems.
23Apr21 USA FAA Information Note Iraq More weaponised drones and indirect fire attacks are likely across Iraq, increasing the risk to aviation. At least three rockets were fired at ORBI/Baghdad on Apr 22, which wounded one person. Several more unfired rockets were found stashed on the rooftop of a nearby building which overlooks the airport. Iranian backed militia are thought to be responsible and continue to actively target US interests at airports throughout Iraq.
15Apr21 USA FAA Information Note Iraq Explosive drone attack by militia on US interests at ORER/Erbil Airport on April 14. It is unique as these kinds of attacks usually use less accurate rockets and mortars. It may signify that militia have increasing access to more sophisticated weapons which may pose a new threat to airports throughout Iraq including ORBI/Baghdad.
North Korea
The primary risk is from debris from missile re-entries striking aircraft overflying the oceanic part of the ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR over the Sea of Japan. North Korea regularly conducts unannounced missile tests in this area. Consider rerouting to remain over the Japanese landmass or east of it.

There is also a risk of mistaken identity in or near the ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR boundary, as North Korea are threatening to actively shoot down reconnaissance aircraft in their airspace.

The US prohibits flights across all North Korean airspace, including the oceanic part of the ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR over the Sea of Japan. Several other countries have airspace warnings in place which advise caution due to the risk posed by unannounced rocket launches.

Major events:
July 2023: North Korea is threatening to actively shoot down reconnaissance aircraft in their airspace. This may put civil aviation at higher risk of mistaken identity in or near the ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR boundary.
Feb 2023: Ballistic missile fired over the UHHH/Khabarovsk FIR and then landed inside the RJJJ/Fukuoka FIR near several international airways.
Oct 2022: Ballistic missile fired directly over Japan - the first to incur on Japanese airspace since 2017.
2017: North Korea launched two intercontinental ballistic missiles. Both of these landed in the Sea of Japan, well inside the Fukuoka Flight Information Region (Japanese airspace), and significantly, at least one did not re-enter the atmosphere intact – meaning that a debris field of missile fragments passed through the airspace, not just one complete missile.
2015: North Korea gradually stopped notifying ICAO of missile launches, so that aircraft could avoid the launch and splashdown areas.

Read: North Korea Missile Threat, Oct 2022 (OPSGROUP article)

01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2218/26 Italian operators should avoid the ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR due to risks from missile launches.
27Feb23 USA Information Note North Korea Sheds some light on the risks posed from several recent missile launches, including one that transited the UHHH/Khabarovsk FIR and then landed inside the RJJJ/Fukuoka FIR near several international airways. The major risk to aircraft is from falling debris, especially if a launch fails.
19Oct22 Canada AIC 17/26 Canadian operators should not enter the ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR due to risk posed by unannounced rocket launches.
07Sep20 USA SFAR 79 Flights are prohibited in all North Korean airspace, including the oceanic part of the ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR over the Sea of Japan, due to the threat posed by unannounced North Korean missile launches and air defense weapons systems.
09Apr20 France AIC 011/26 Caution advised to French operators for all North Korea overflights, especially in the maritime part over the Sea of Japan (due to unannounced rocket launches).
19Dec19 Germany AIC 03/26 Caution to German operators in North Korean airspace (ZKKP FIR) due to launching of test missiles without prior notice.
23Aug17 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) UK operators should avoid the ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR and should exercise caution over the Sea of Japan due potential risk from unannounced rocket launches.
09Aug17 OPSGROUP Note To Members: Japan Missile Risk Since 2015, North Korea has been test-launching missiles with increasing regularity. The absolute lack of warning, coupled with an emerging picture of a focus area for re-entry, creates a risk to flight operations in the western portion of Japan’s Fukuoka FIR over the Sea of Japan. Consider rerouting to remain over the Japanese landmass or east of it. Check routings carefully for arrivals/departures to Europe from Japan, especially if planning airways which connect with the UHHH/Khabarovsk FIR at waypoints IGROD and AVGOK.
South Sudan
Following a military coup in neighbouring Sudan in April 2023, Sudan remains closed to all civilian flights, and in South Sudan, air navigation services remain suspended above FL245.

In South Sudan itself, following five years of civil war, a ceasefire has largely held since Sept 2018. Significant reduction in violence, but the political and security situation remains volatile. In the event of a serious deterioration, similar to those of July 2016 and Dec 2013, HJJJ/Juba airport may be closed at short notice.

The UK and France still advise against overflying South Sudan below FL250/260 due to the risk posed by anti-aircraft weaponry. The US published a similar warning but rescinded it in Aug 2019. Germany withdrew their warning in March 2025.

The primary risk now comes from no ATC above FL245 due to the military coup in Sudan, and poor levels of ATC provision for overflights below FL245 or for aircraft operating to HSSJ/Juba airport. In Jan 2021, ICAO published a letter warning of service disruptions and lack of qualified ATC personnel, the lack of contingencies in place, communication issues, the number of withdrawn navigation aids and above all, the lack of information being supplied to operators regarding these issues.

Major events:
April 2023: Military coup in Sudan. Sudan’s airspace now closed, South Sudan’s airspace now closed above FL245.
April 2019: Military coup in Sudan led to the temporary closure of South Sudan’s airspace.
June 2016: The South Sudanese army declared intention to shoot down aircraft without permits and/or not following proper procedures.

Read: OPSGROUP article: Sudan Airspace Update, Apr 2023

01Nov22 South Africa Notam FACA A3715/22 Risk for overflights of South Sudan below FL245 or for aircraft operating to HSSJ/Juba airport due to poor levels of ATC provision.
02Feb21 South Sudan Notam HSSJ A0021/21 ATC radio is not good enough to cover all airspace in the country. All aircraft must use TCAS.
20Jan21 ICAO Letter AN 13/35-21/5 ICAO letter raising concerns about the risk to civil aircraft in the South Sudan region, below FL245, and into and out of HSSJ/Juba international airport. The letter raises concerns about ATC service disruptions and lack of qualified ATC personnel, the lack of contingencies in place, communication issues, the number of withdrawn navigation aids and above all, the lack of information being supplied to operators regarding these issues. They raise ‘grave concerns’ for the safety of international flights.
09Apr20 France AIC 011/26 French operators overflying the part of the HSSS/Sudan FIR above South Sudan should be at FL260 or above.
16Jun16 OSPGROUP Research Article Army of South Sudan will shoot down aircraft.
12Jun15 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) UK operators advised of potential risk below 25,000 ft AGL in the airspace over South Sudan due to the potential risk from anti-aviation weaponry.
Moldova
There is an ongoing active conflict in Ukraine between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Ukraine closed its entire airspace to all civil traffic in Feb 2022. Russia and Belarus have closed large sections of their own airspace near to their FIR boundaries with Ukraine. Moldova initially closed all their airspace too, but have since opened a section on their western border with the LRBB/Bucharesti FIR for flights to LUKK/Chisinau airport.

The primary risk is an unintended targeting of civil aircraft by military near the Moldova-Ukraine border, including misidentification (as with MAS17, UIA752), or confusion. The secondary risk is from spillover from the conflict such as Russian drones and missiles.

Major events:
Feb 2023: The LUUU/Chisinau FIR closed temporarily following reports of Russian drones infringing its airspace. Earlier in the month, at least two missiles also transited Moldova during a major military operation in Ukraine. Spill over risks from the conflict are being frequently reported.

Read: OPSGROUP article: Ukraine and Russia Update March 2022

22Nov24 Moldova AIP SUP 12/24 Moldovan airspace (the LUUU/Chisinau FIR) was closed in Feb 2022 due to the ongoing conflict in neighbouring Ukraine. But there is a section of airspace along the western border with the LRBB/Bucharesti FIR that is open for flights to LUKK/Chisinau airport.
27Jun24 France AIC 011/26 French operators should not enter the airspace of Moldova in close proximity to the country’s border with Ukraine. LUKK/Chisinau is not in this area, so flights here are permitted.
14Nov22 USA FAA Information Note Russia/Ukraine The Russia/Ukraine conflict spillover risk is increasing. Russia periodically launches missiles targeting Ukraine which transit Moldovan airspace. Reports of comms and GPS jamming outside the conflict zone, particularly over the Black Sea and Caspian Sea. Expanded drone activity, especially around Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
24Feb22 Canada AIC 17/26 Canadian operators are prohibited from the LUUU/Chisinau FIR.
Belarus
There is an ongoing active conflict in Ukraine between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Ukraine closed its entire airspace to all civil traffic in Feb 2022. Russia and Belarus have closed large sections of their own airspace near to their FIR boundaries with Ukraine.

The US and Canada have issued an outright ban barring their operators from the entire airspace of Belarus, and several other countries have issued warnings.

The primary risk is an unintended targeting of civil aircraft by military near the Belarus-Ukraine border, including misidentification (as with MAS17, UIA752), or confusion.

Read: OPSGROUP article: Ukraine and Russia Update March 2022



Prior to Feb 2022, several countries and aviation organisations had urged airlines and operators to avoid the airspace of Belarus, following the country’s interception of an international flight bound for Lithuania and forced to land in Minsk on May 23, 2021. The forced landing of this flight was politically motivated, and the crew were misled into believing that there was a credible security threat against the aircraft.
01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2216/26 Italian operators should avoid the UMMV/Minsk FIR.
03Jan25 Germany AIC 03/26 German operators should not enter the airspace of Belarus west of 60E.
27Jun24 France AIC 011/26 French operators should not enter the airspace of Belarus due to the conflict in neighbouring Ukraine.
24Feb22 USA Notam KICZ A0003/22 US operators are prohibited from the airspace of Belarus (the UMMV/Minsk FIR) due to to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
24Feb22 Canada AIC 17/26 Canadian operators are prohibited from the UMMV/Minsk FIR.
24Jan22 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) UK operators should not enter the UMMV/Minsk FIR due to potential safety and security risks.
02Jun21 EASA Safety Directive 2021-02 EASA is requesting member states to tell their operators to “not conduct operations” in the UMMV/Minsk FIR, unless it is to ensure safe operation in case of unforeseen circumstances.
25May21 EASA Safety Information Bullet 2021-10 EU and Third Country Operators should avoid the UMMV/Minsk FIR.
Eritrea
HHAS/Asmara airport was targeted on 14 Nov 2020 by missiles from the Tigray TPLF, bringing Eritrea into the conflict and meaning that operations here should be avoided. See Ethiopia summary for more detail.
17Nov20 OPSGROUP Airspace Risk Warning ARW11-2020 Airspace Risk Warning for Eritrea

LEVEL 3 : Caution

Caution applies to countries that do not have multiple current airspace warnings, but we consider worthy of a security review before operating into or over

Western Sahara
Oct 2026: Morocco controls most of Western Sahara, while the Polisario Front holds territory east of the berm. Fighting continues, and a reported drone strike killed 3 Polisario members in June.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Western Sahara Airspace Update - 2021

The primary risk is exposure to anti-aircraft weapons at low altitude. The FAA’s note flags this as a possible threat, but it’s for information only and does not restrict flights. ATC coverage is not continuous, and the airspace is split between the GCCC/Canarias FIR and GOOO/Dakar FIR.

Major events:
Jun 2026: The UN expressed concern after a reported drone strike in the Mijek area killed 3 Polisario members.
Nov 2020: The Polisario Front declared the 1991 ceasefire over and said it would resume armed ops.
19Nov20 USA FAA Information Note Morocco/Western Sahara Potential new conflict zone in Western Sahara, including anti-aircraft weaponry which may pose an inadvertent risk to civil aircraft up to FL120.
India
Oct 2026: The May 2025 ceasefire has largely held, but tensions remain. India and Pakistan both protested after a disputed border incident on Oct 2. Their reciprocal airspace bans also remain in place.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Pakistan/India Airspace Update - 2025

The primary risk is renewed military activity around Kashmir, which could expose aircraft to air-defence activity or misidentification. The ceasefire has reduced the immediate threat, but we continue to advise caution near Kashmir and the shared border because military activity could resume with little warning.



Major events:
May 2025: Four days of fighting in Kashmir included airstrikes and shelling. A ceasefire was announced on May 10. Both countries then barred each other’s aircraft from their airspace.
Turkey
Oct 2026: Turkey has renewed its warning after pilots reported intermittent GPS signal loss.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Turkey, Syria and Iraq: Airspace Risk - 2022

The primary risk is military activity near the Syrian and Iraqi borders, where aircraft and drones could be misidentified. The risk is worth considering near LTAJ/Gaziantep, close to the Syrian border. The FAA has also noted that local armed groups have access to shoulder-fired anti-aircraft weapons, although it reported no specific threats against civil aviation. GPS signals may also drop out in parts of the LTAA/Ankara FIR and LTBB/Istanbul FIR, so use caution with RNAV/RNP procedures. More info: Special Briefing, OPSGROUP Members Dashboard

Major events:
Nov 2023: GPS Spoofing being encountered over the Black Sea in Turkish airspace.
Nov 2022: Shelling and a rocket strike were reported near a town in southern Turkey, close to the Syrian border.
02Oct26 Turkey Notam LTAA A4412/26 Expect GPS interference in Turkish Airspace.
19May21 USA FAA Information Note Turkey Drone attack in May 2021 on LTCC/Diyabakir airport in South Eastern Turkey. Local militia targeting military interests are thought to be responsible. While no threats have been made against civil aviation, the militia are known to have access to portable anti-aircraft weaponry which may pose a low-level risk through misidentification.
Niger
Oct 2026: Niger remains under military rule following the 2023 coup. The security situation is still unsettled after mutinous soldiers attacked key sites in Niamey in August. Commercial flights continue at DRRN/Niamey.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Niger Military Coup: Airspace Reopens - 2023

The primary risk is armed activity and the chance of civil aircraft being caught in crossfire or mistaken for a military target. The coup has also left relations with neighboring states strained, adding to the risk of sudden regional escalation or airspace restrictions. EASA advises operators to assess the risk below FL260 in the DRRR/Niamey FIR.



Major events:
Aug 2026: Mutinous soldiers attacked the airport and presidency in Niamey. Government forces later regained control of the airbase.
Jan 2026: Islamic State claimed an attack on the airbase at DRRN/Niamey. Several parked civilian aircraft were damaged.
Jul-Sep 2023: A military coup led to temporary airspace and airport closures. Niger reopened its airspace in September.
Myanmar
Oct 2026: Fighting continues across Myanmar, with recent military airstrikes in Rakhine and a drone attack in September that briefly shut down VYMD/Mandalay.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: What is going on in Myanmar - 2022

The primary risk is fighting and air-defence activity. EASA, Canada and France advise flying at or above FL260. Italy and the UK flag risks below 25,000 ft AGL, while Germany’s warning applies below FL160. France also says to use only VYYY/Yangon as an alternate. GPS interference has been reported in the north.

Major events:
Sep 2026: A resistance group claimed a drone attack on a military air base at VYMD/Mandalay. Flights were briefly suspended.
Feb 2026: A drone damaged a passenger ATR preparing to depart VYMK/Myitkyina. The airport closed temporarily.
Jan 2024: An armed group reportedly shot down a military helicopter in Kachin state, likely with a shoulder-fired missile.
Sep 2023: Resistance groups attacked military sites, including hangars near VYNT/Naypyitaw. GPS jamming was also reported on airway N895.
Apr 2023: An artillery attack temporarily closed VYYY/Yangon.
Sep 2022: A passenger was reportedly hit by gunfire as an ATR approached VYLK/Loikaw.
01Sep26 Italy Notam LIRR E2222/26 Italian operators should avoid the VYYF/Yangon FIR below 25000 ft AGL.
07Aug26 Canada Notam CZUL H5013/26 It's recommended that Candian operators remain at or above FL260 in the VYYF/Yangon FIR due to risk of anti-aircraft weaponry.
30Jul26 EASA Information Note Operators should take potential risk into account below FL260 in the airspace of Myanmar.
29Jan26 France AIC 011/26 French operators should remain at or above FL260 in the Yangon FIR. VYYY/Yangon airport is the only alternate available to be filed.
15May25 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) Caution to UK operators for flights below 25,000 ft AGL in the VYYF/Yangon FIR due to potential risks from anti-aircraft weaponry.
23Nov22 Germany AIC 03/26 Caution to German operators for flights below FL160 due to a potential risk from military ops, surface-to-air fire and anti-aviation weaponry.
South Korea
Oct 2026: Pilots have reported unreliable or intermittent GPS signals across the RKRR/Incheon FIR. The likely source is North Korea.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: South Korea Airspace Risk Update - 2024

The primary risk is GPS disruption on arrival or departure around Seoul. South Korea advises pilots to use extreme caution with GPS. Keep a non-GPS navigation option available and cross-check position, especially near RKSI/Incheon and RKSS/Gimpo.

Major events:
Nov 2024: South Korea accused North Korea of GPS jamming that disrupted civilian aircraft and ships.
May 2024: A pilot reported GPS spoofing while approaching RKSS/Gimpo.
29Sep26 South Korea Notam RKRR Z0718/26 Watch out for GPS interference in the RKRR/Incheon FIR. It has been reported in the vicinity of Seoul, including RSKI/Incheon. The interference likely originates from North Korea in response to ongoing military drills in the area.
27May18 USA Notam KICZ A0011/18 Exercise caution in the Incheon FIR due to interference with or disruption of GPS signals. (Notam expired in May 2019, listing here for reference only).
Cyprus
Oct 2026: Cyprus warns that GPS interference may affect the LCCC/Nicosia FIR. A separate caution about military aircraft flying without transponders remains in place.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: GPS Spoofing Update: Map, Scenarios and Guidance - 2023

The primary risk is military activity near Syria spilling into nearby airspace. The US advises caution within 200 NM of the OSTT/Damascus FIR, where GPS interference, radio jamming and stray missiles are possible. Military aircraft may also fly without transponders in the LCCC/Nicosia FIR, making them harder to spot. Cyprus advises crews to report GPS issues to ATC and use conventional navigation if needed.

Major events:
Nov 2023-ongoing: Crews reported GPS spoofing over the eastern Mediterranean, including navigation failures near Cyprus.
Sep 2018: A Russian military aircraft was shot down near the LCCC/Nicosia FIR boundary during strikes in Syria, raising concern for nearby civil traffic.
04Aug26 Cyprus Notam LCCC A0818/26 Caution in Cyprus airspace due to military aircraft flying with no transponders.
28Jul26 Cyprus Notam LCCC A0799/26 Expect GPS interference in Cyprus airspace.
14Apr18 USA Notam KICZ A0009/18 Exercise caution within 200 NM of the Damascus FIR due to military activity. Possibility of GPS interference, communication jamming, and long-range surface to air missiles in the area.
Venezuela
Oct 2026: The immediate disruption after the US strikes in January has passed. The FAA lifted its temporary restrictions and removed the related Notams. EASA’s warning expired in March, and no FAA flight bans or caution Notams are currently in force.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Venezuela & Caribbean Airspace Update - Jan 2026

The primary risk is lingering GPS interference and military activity. The FAA warns that GPS problems can continue after aircraft leave the SVZM/Maiquetia FIR, and that Venezuelan air-defence systems could reach civil flight levels, raising the risk of misidentification.



Major events:
Jan 2026: US strikes in Venezuela led the FAA to briefly restrict flights in the SVZM/Maiquetia FIR and nearby Caribbean FIRs. The restrictions were lifted within hours, and the disruption soon eased.
Nov 2025: The FAA warned of GPS interference and increased military activity. Several airlines suspended or rerouted flights, and Venezuela revoked six airlines’ operating permits.
16Feb26 EASA Information Note Operators should take potential risk into account in the airspace of Venezuela and neighbouring airspace.
21Nov25 USA FAA Information Note Venezeula In late 2025 Venezeula has carried out a mass mobilization of military assets, including the presence of advanced surface-to-air weaponry capable of reaching aircraft at all levels.

While no intent to target civil aviation has been announced, substantial risks exist for overflights.

In addition, there has been an increase in GPS interference in the SVZM/Maiquetia FIR with lasting effects on overflights. Jamming and spoofing may extend as far as 250nm from the source.
Puerto Rico
Oct 2026: The FAA restrictions introduced after the US strikes in Venezuela have ended. Related Caribbean Notams were removed, and no FAA flight bans or cautionary advisories are currently in force for the TJZS/San Juan FIR.

The primary risk is unexpected military or state aircraft activity in a busy civil airspace corridor, especially if flights are not fully coordinated with civilian ATC. The FAA’s temporary restrictions and caution notices have all been lifted.



Major events:
Jan 2026: After US strikes in Venezuela, the FAA temporarily restricted US civil flights in the TJZS/San Juan FIR. The restriction was lifted within 24 hours, and related Caribbean Notams were removed later that month.
Nov 2025: The FAA warned of increased state aircraft activity in the TJZS/San Juan FIR as US military activity grew across the southern Caribbean.
Rwanda
Oct 2026: Fighting between Congolese forces and AFC/M23 rebels continues in eastern DRC near Rwanda’s western border, and front lines remain fluid. The conflict raises the risk of military activity near the border.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Africa Airspace Risk: Jet Shot in Rwanda - 2023

The primary risk is spillover from the conflict in eastern DRC. UK and Canadian warnings cite anti-aircraft weapons, but apply to specified areas within the FZZA/Kinshasa FIR in DRC, not the HRYR/Kigali FIR in Rwanda.



Major events:
Jan 2026: Fighting continued in eastern DRC despite diplomatic efforts, with rebels active near the Rwandan and Burundian borders.
Feb 2025: DRC closed its airspace to Rwandan-registered and Rwanda-based aircraft. RwandAir rerouted affected flights.
Jan 2025: M23 rebel forces took control of Goma and its airport, FZNA/Goma, during heavy fighting.
Jan 2023: Rwandan forces fired on a DRC fighter near Goma, saying it had entered Rwandan airspace. The damaged aircraft landed at FZNA/Goma.
Cambodia
Oct 2026: The ceasefire with Thailand is holding, but tensions remain along the border. The VDPF/Phnom Penh FIR is open, though Cambodia has set up a danger area near the border and rerouted some eastbound flights from L880/G474 via B204. In the VTBB/Bangkok FIR, Thai Notams report unmanned-aircraft activity near the border, so ATC may give aircraft radar vectors.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Emerging Airspace Risk: Cambodia & Thailand - 2025

The primary risk is that fighting could flare up again and disrupt nearby routes. Check the latest Notams for the VDPF/Phnom Penh FIR and VTBB/Bangkok FIR before departure.



Major events:
Sep 2026: Cambodia protested what it said was a Thai military helicopter incursion. Thailand denied that the helicopter crossed the border.
Dec 2025: Fighting resumed after the July ceasefire broke down. A new ceasefire took effect on 27 December after weeks of clashes.
Jul 2025: 5 days of border clashes, including airstrikes and artillery fire, ended in a ceasefire.
Curacao
Oct 2026: The temporary FAA restrictions following US strikes in Venezuela have ended. The FAA removed the related Caribbean Notams, and no FAA flight bans or caution advisories are currently in force for the TNCF/Curacao FIR.

The primary risk is military aircraft mixing with civil traffic in a busy corridor, especially when they are difficult for ATC to track. Two close encounters were reported near Curacao in December 2025. The FAA has since removed its warnings for the TNCF/Curacao FIR.



Major events:
Jan 2026: After US strikes in Venezuela, the FAA briefly restricted flights in the TNCF/Curacao FIR and nearby Caribbean airspace. It lifted the restrictions within a day and removed the remaining Notams later that month.
Dec 2025: A JetBlue flight from TNCC/Curacao narrowly avoided a US Air Force tanker. A private jet also reported unidentified traffic nearby.
Nov 2025: Curacao’s aviation authority warned flights to and from TNCA/Aruba, TNCC/Curacao, and TNCB/Bonaire after unidentified aircraft were detected in the area.
Central America
Oct 2026: FAA caution notices remain in effect for US operators in specified Pacific overwater areas. They cover MHTG/Cenamer, MMFR/Mexico, MMFO/Mazatlan Oceanic, MPZL/Panama, SKED/Bogota, SEFG/Guayaquil and XX01/unassigned eastern Pacific. A separate FAA notice also covers MHCC/Central America FIR.

The primary risk is intermittent GNSS interference and military activity. The FAA advises US operators to use caution: military aircraft may operate near normal cruising levels with little warning, sometimes with transponders off, and GNSS problems may continue after leaving the affected area. The risk applies at all altitudes, including during arrivals and departures. There are no specific routing bans.



Major events:
Sep 2026: The FAA extended caution notices across Pacific overwater areas. They remain in effect through 13 March 2027.
Jan 2026: Reports of intermittent GNSS interference and US military counter-narcotics flights in the eastern Pacific prompted the FAA’s first caution notices.
10Sep26 USA Notam KICZ A0049/26 Caution for US operators in Pacific overwater areas in Central America due to potential risks of GPS interference and military activity.
10Sep26 USA Notam KICZ A0048/26 Caution for US operators in Pacific overwater areas in Central America due to potential risks of GPS interference and military activity.
10Sep26 USA Notam KICZ A0050/26 Caution for US operators in Pacific overwater areas in Central America due to potential risks of GPS interference and military activity.
10Sep26 USA Notam KICZ A0051/26 Caution for US operators in Pacific overwater areas in Central America due to potential risks of GPS interference and military activity.
10Sep26 USA Notam KICZ A0047/26 Caution for US operators in Pacific overwater areas in Central America due to potential risks of GPS interference and military activity.
10Sep26 USA Notam KICZ A0052/26 Caution for US operators in Pacific overwater areas in Central America due to potential risks of GPS interference and military activity.
10Sep26 USA Notam KICZ A0053/26 Caution for US operators in Pacific overwater areas in Central America due to potential risks of GPS interference and military activity.
16Jan26 USA FAA Background Notice Caution for US operators across multiple eastern Pacific and Central America FIRs due to ongoing military activity and intermittent GPS interference.
Jordan
Oct 2026: Missile and drone threats linked to the regional conflict remain a concern in OJAC/Amman FIR. EASA has eased its guidance, but some countries continue to advise against entering Jordanian airspace.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Middle East airspace situation - 2026

The primary risk is missile and drone activity linked to the regional conflict. Previous attacks and air-defence activity have created risks from interception, misidentification and falling debris. EASA advises operators to assess the risks and maintain contingency plans, while France advises caution and Germany continues to advise against entering the FIR.



Major events:
Sep 2026: Renewed attacks highlighted the risk of a rapid deterioration in Jordan airspace.
Jul 2026: EASA advised operators to avoid Jordanian airspace at all altitudes following renewed regional hostilities.
Apr 2024: Jordan temporarily closed its airspace during Iran’s drone and missile attack on Israel.
14Oct26 France Notam LFFF F2117/26 French operators should exercise great caution in the airspace of Jordan.
17Aug26 Germany Notam EDWW B0678/26 German operators should not enter the airspace of Jordan.
22Jul26 EASA CZIB 2026-08-R3 Operators should exercise caution in the airspace of Jordan.
Egypt
Oct 2026: Egypt's airspace remains open. Regional tensions continue to pose a potential spillover risk around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba, but there is no longer an EASA CZIB covering Egypt.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Middle East airspace situation - 2026

The primary risk is potential spillover from regional conflict, particularly missile and drone activity around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba. In November 2023, the UK warned of risks from heightened military activity linked to the Israel-Gaza conflict, after missiles and drones launched from Yemen were intercepted over the Red Sea and some landed near the Egypt-Israel border.



Major events:

Nov 2023: The UK warned of increased risks over the Gulf of Aqaba and Red Sea due to the Israel-Gaza conflict. Missiles and drones launched from Yemen were intercepted over the Red Sea, while others landed near the Egypt-Israel border. New Airspace Warning: The Red Sea, Nov 2023 (OPSGROUP article)

Jul 2019: British Airways suspended Cairo operations for one week due to security concerns.

Feb 2017: An SA-7 anti-aircraft missile tube was found less than a mile from HECA/Cairo airport.

Oct 2015: A Russian A321 was destroyed by a bomb after departing HESH/Sharm El Sheikh, raising concerns about insider threats at the airport.
26Dec24 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) Caution to UK operators over the Red Sea due to the potential risk from military activity.
26Dec24 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) Caution to UK operators over the Gulf of Aqaba due to the potential risk from military activity.
Qatar
Oct 2026: OTDF/Doha FIR remains open, but the risk of renewed military activity linked to the wider regional conflict remains. Some restrictions remain over Persian Gulf waters, and short-notice disruption is possible.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Middle East airspace situation - 2026

The primary risk is missile and drone activity linked to the regional conflict. Qatar hosts major US military facilities and could be directly exposed to Iranian attacks. Air-defence activity also creates risks from misidentification and falling debris.



Major events:
Feb-Jul 2026: OTDF/Doha FIR closed and reopened several times during the Iran conflict before returning to normal overflight operations.
Mar 2026: An Iranian missile strike was reported near Al Udeid Air Base, close to Doha.
14Oct26 France Notam LFFF F2114/26 French operators should exercise great caution in the airspace of Qatar.
14Jul26 EASA CZIB 2026-07R3 Operators should avoid airspace over the waters of the Persian Gulf within Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and UAE FIRs, plus the Gulf of Oman within the Muscat FIR west of 58 degrees east, except as necessary for arrivals/departures from aerodromes within the affected FIRs.
Bahrain
Oct 2026: The OBBB/Bahrain FIR remains open, but the risk of renewed military activity linked to the wider regional conflict remains. Some restrictions remain over Persian Gulf waters, and short-notice disruption is possible.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Middle East airspace situation - 2026

The primary risk is missile and drone activity linked to the regional conflict. Bahrain hosts major US military facilities and could be targeted in Iranian attacks. Air-defence activity also creates risks from misidentification and falling debris. EASA has issued a warning covering Persian Gulf waters.



Major events:
Feb-Jul 2026: OBBB/Bahrain FIR closed and reopened several times during the Iran conflict before returning to normal overflight operations.
Mar 2026: Iranian missile and drone attacks affected several Gulf states, including Bahrain.
14Oct26 France Notam LFFF F2116/26 French operators should exercise great caution in the airspace of Bahrain.
14Jul26 EASA CZIB 2026-07R3 Operators should avoid airspace over the waters of the Persian Gulf within Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and UAE FIRs, plus the Gulf of Oman within the Muscat FIR west of 58 degrees east, except as necessary for arrivals/departures from aerodromes within the affected FIRs.
United Arab Emirates
Oct 2026: The OMAE/Emirates FIR remains open, but the risk of renewed military activity linked to the wider regional conflict remains. EASA has warned of risks over Persian Gulf waters within the FIR, while several countries continue to issue airspace warnings for the region.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Middle East airspace situation - 2026

The primary risk is missile and drone activity linked to the regional conflict, including the potential for attacks on the UAE and falling debris from air-defence interceptions. Debris from intercepted drones has previously fallen in Abu Dhabi, causing injuries and damage. The wider risk of renewed escalation remains.



Major events:
Feb-Jul 2026: UAE airspace closed and reopened several times during the Iran conflict.
Mar 2026: Debris from intercepted drones fell in Abu Dhabi, causing injuries and damage.
Feb 2022: Multiple Houthi drone and missile attacks targeted Abu Dhabi.
14Oct26 France Notam LFFF F2113/26 French operators are advised to exercise caution in the OMAE/Emirates FIR.
14Jul26 EASA CZIB 2026-07R3 Operators should avoid airspace over the waters of the Persian Gulf within Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and UAE FIRs, plus the Gulf of Oman within the Muscat FIR west of 58 degrees east, except as necessary for arrivals/departures from aerodromes within the affected FIRs.
Oman
Oct 2026: The OOMM/Muscat FIR remains open and is a key part of the southern bypass route to avoid Iran.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Middle East airspace situation - 2026

The primary risk is military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, including potential missile and drone attacks and air-defence operations. EASA advises against operating over the Gulf of Oman within OOMM/Muscat FIR west of 58°E at any altitude, except for arrivals and departures from airports.



Major events:
Feb-Jul 2026: Oman remained open throughout the Iran conflict and became a key part of the southern bypass route.
Jun 2025: Israel and Iran exchanged missile strikes, prompting renewed regional airspace warnings.
Oct 2024: Israel and Iran exchanged missile attacks, leading to widespread airspace avoidance.
14Oct26 France Notam LFFF F2112/26 French operators are advised to exercise caution in the OOMM/Muscat FIR.
14Jul26 EASA CZIB 2026-07R3 Operators should avoid airspace over the waters of the Persian Gulf within Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and UAE FIRs, plus the Gulf of Oman within the Muscat FIR west of 58 degrees east, except as necessary for arrivals/departures from aerodromes within the affected FIRs.
Indonesia
The security situation in Papua remains poor. While there are no active airspace warnings for Indonesian Papua or neighbouring Papua New Guinea, the region has a recent history of armed groups targeting either low flying aircraft or airports themselves. Operators should take extra security precautions, including limiting time spent on the ground.

Major events:
Mar 2023: An armed group opened fired at WAYB/Bilorai airport. One plane on the ground was hit and another diverted.
Feb 2023: An aircraft was set on fire and the pilot taken hostage at Paro airfield.
Jan 2023: An armed group fired at an aircraft landing at WAJO/Oksibil airport. It went around and diverted.
June 2022: An armed group fired at an aircraft landing at Kenyam airfield.
Apr 2021: An armed group attacked WABL/Ilaga airport and torched a private helicopter.
Central African Republic
The security situation on the ground in the Central African Republic is dire. There have been numerous attacks on civilians and peacekeeping troops in recent years. FEFF/Bangui airport is operating under UN control, and is subject to regular power outages. The US and UK advise against all travel to the entire country due to violent crime, civil unrest, and the presence of armed groups who control large areas of the country. There are no official airspace warnings in place for the CAR, but the general advice is to avoid landings here completely.

Major events:
Nov 2022: An unidentified aircraft dropped bombs targeting a militant group 150nm north of the capital Bangui. The group responded with small arms fire. Low flying aircraft in the area may be at increased risk.
Feb 2021: Deteriorating security situation. A state of emergency was declared due to post election violence. The government suspended use of all airspace by foreign governments and NGOs. For the second time, armed rebels attempted to enter the capital Bangui to overthrow the newly elected president. They got within six miles of the city before being pushed back by local and UN forces.
Japan
The primary risk is from debris from missile re-entries striking aircraft overflying the oceanic part of the ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR over the Sea of Japan. North Korea regularly conducts unannounced missile tests in this area. Consider rerouting to remain over the Japanese landmass or east of it.

The US prohibits flights across all North Korean airspace, including the oceanic part of the ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR over the Sea of Japan. Several other countries have airspace warnings in place which advise caution due to the risk posed by unannounced rocket launches.

Major events:
Oct 2022: North Korea fired a ballistic missile directly over Japan - the first to incur on Japanese airspace since 2017.
2017: North Korea launched two intercontinental ballistic missiles. Both of these landed in the Sea of Japan, well inside the Fukuoka Flight Information Region (Japanese airspace), and significantly, at least one did not re-enter the atmosphere intact – meaning that a debris field of missile fragments passed through the airspace, not just one complete missile.
2015: North Korea gradually stopped notifying ICAO of missile launches, so that aircraft could avoid the launch and splashdown areas.

Read: North Korea Missile Threat, Oct 2022 (OPSGROUP article)

07Sep20 USA SFAR 79 Flights are prohibited in all North Korean airspace, including the oceanic part of the ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR over the Sea of Japan, due to the threat posed by unannounced North Korean missile launches and air defense weapons systems.
09Aug17 OPSGROUP Note To Members: Japan Missile Risk Since 2015, North Korea has been test-launching missiles with increasing regularity. The absolute lack of warning, coupled with an emerging picture of a focus area for re-entry, creates a risk to flight operations in the western portion of Japan’s Fukuoka FIR over the Sea of Japan. Consider rerouting to remain over the Japanese landmass or east of it. Check routings carefully for arrivals/departures to Europe from Japan, especially if planning airways which connect with the UHHH/Khabarovsk FIR at waypoints IGROD and AVGOK.
Albania
Pilots should exercise extreme caution while operating in Albanian airspace (the LAAA/Tirana FIR) due to a heightened risk of degraded ATC services.

In April 2021, Albanian airspace (the LAAA/Tirana FIR) along with LATI/Tirana Airport was forced to close, after a number of local air traffic controllers declared themselves temporarily unfit to work.

Local air traffic controllers are working under significant duress and high stress, having been threatened with dismissal (or worse - being arrested and jailed) if they do not declare themselves fit for duty. A number of foreign controllers were temporarily brought in despite not being trained or rated on any of the local positions.

Several international associations have published warnings, including IFALPA and IFATCA.
10Apr21 IFATCA Press Release Pilots should exercise extreme caution while operating in Albanian airspace (the LAAA/Tirana FIR) due to a heightened risk of degraded ATC services.
Chad
Chad in the past was a popular fuel stop in central Africa, but multiple travel warnings now advise against travel here (see the UK advice here, and the US advice here). No official airspace warnings have been issued for Chad, but danger remains high. FTTJ/Ndjamena airport was closed for 2 days in April 2021 due to security concerns following the death of Chad’s long term President - more info here. High threat for terrorism. Avoid landings.

Philippines
There has been a high volume of crew reports of GPS Interference in the Philippines, leading to GPS/ADS-B dropouts, especially in the vicinity of RPLL/Manila.
08May17 Philippines Notam RPLL B1584/17 Reports of GPS interference affecting RPLL/Manila Airport.