
Risk Summary
26 Jan 2021
Danger
In assessing risk to flight over each countries borders,
two scenarios are predominant for civil flight:
1. Risk of shootdown, inadvertent or intentional.
2. Aircraft emergency requiring a landing.
Both these elements are taken into consideration in determining a classification. The highest level of risk here is “Moderate”, on the basis that calling it “high” or “severe” would exaggerate the actual level or risk in landing or overflying the territories concerned.
Classification
Three levels of airspace risk are used in our assessment.
LEVEL 1. Moderate risk - No Fly
LEVEL 2. Assessed risk
LEVEL 3. Caution
A current overflight risk map is maintained at safeairspace.net. We encourage operators to report any new information to report@safeairspace.net.
Guidance
This document is intended to provide operator guidance in determining whether to avoid specific airspaces. Exclusion from this advice, naturally, does not mean that other airspace is risk free.
Information Sources
The countries that issue the most relevant updates for unsafe airspace are:
- US (FAA) – through Notams and SFARs
- UK (DFT) – AIP
- Germany (BMVI) – Notam
- France (DGAC) - AIC
Operators should note that in general, the Civil Aviation Authorities of the countries whose airspace is determined to be unsafe are unlikely to issue reliable guidance. Read more at safeairspace.net.
LEVEL 1: Moderate Risk - No Fly
For these countries, the basis for inclusion is the highly unstable current events on the ground, and in all cases the ground factions having access to MANPADS or SAMS. We strongly recommend avoiding this airspace entirely. All countries have multiple warnings, and your country of registry is likely to have issued specific instructions not to penetrate these airspaces
Iraq
The primary risk is intentional targeting by terrorist organisations who possess portable anti-aircraft weaponry. Civil aircraft may also be misidentified by the air defence systems of both local and foreign military who are active in the country. There is a clear risk to civil aircraft operating throughout the FIR at all levels however the eastern airways UL602 (between TAMSI and ALPET), UM860 and UM688 are considered acceptable by France and the UK above FL320.
Major events: Jan 2020: US drone strike near ORBI/Baghdad killed a high ranking Iranian general. Considered a serious escalation. Anything that looks like a US asset or ally is now considered a target. Jan 2020: Ukrainian Airlines 737 misidentified and shot down by Iranian armed forced in Tehran hours after retaliatory missile attacks against US bases in Iraq. June 2020 onwards: Multiple rocket attacks on ORBI and the US embassy. In general anti-US sentiment is worsening, the US Government is threatening to shut down the embassy if sporadic attacks don't stop.
Read: Iraq Airspace Update, March 2020 (OPSGROUP article)
Yemen
The primary risk is intentional targeting by terrorist groups with access to sophisticated anti-aircraft weaponry. Civil aircraft may also be at danger from on-going high intensity military operations including the use of explosive drones and missiles. Saudi-led airstrikes can occur at any time with little regard to civil traffic, including in the capital Sana’a.
Major events: 2017: OYSN/Sanaa badly damaged by coalition airstrikes. April 2018: Saudi airstrikes on Sana’a in retaliation for Houthi drone attacks across the border. July 2018: Houthi target Abu Dhabi Airport with explosive drones. Throughout 2020: Ongoing Houthi drone and rocket attacks targeting OEAH/Abha and OEGN/Jizan airports along the Yemeni-Saudi Border. September 2020: Multiple Saudi airstrikes on rebels in Sana’a, several near the airport. October 2020: Riyadh briefly on high alert for Houthi cruise missile and drone attack.
Read: Saudi-Yemen Airspace Update, Oct 2020 (OPSGROUP article)
Iran
The primary risk is a misident by Iranian air defense systems. Iran has shown willingness to use long-range, advanced anti-aircraft-capable weapons during heightened tensions and in close proximity to heavily flown international air routes. There is also a potential for Iranian surface-to-surface missile fire from western Iran, targeting terrorist positions in Iraq. The secondary risks come from ballistic missile test launches with no warning by Notam, and GPS jamming (including in overwater airspace over the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman).
Major events:
Jan 2020: Iranian Armed Forces shot-down Ukraine Int Airlines flight 752 over Tehran, having mistaken the aircraft radar return for an inbound missile. Just hours prior to the shoot-down, the US FAA issued “Emergency Order” Notams banning all US operators from overflying the airspace of Iraq and Iran. This was in response to an Iranian missile strike on US military bases in Iraq, which had occurred earlier that night.
June 2019: Iran shot down a US military unmanned aircraft operating in airspace over the Gulf of Oman with a SAM system.
Since 2017: Iran has conducted multiple ballistic missile test launches without issuing any Notams to warn civil operators, the latest taking place in late December 2019.
Read: Iran Airspace Update, March 2020 (OPSGROUP article)
Libya
The primary risk is a misident by Libyan air defense systems, or by militia who have threatened to shoot down aircraft operating in western Libya, including HLLM/Tripoli Mitiga airport. Risk remains high across Libya at all flight levels, and avoidance of all airspace and airports is strongly recommended. The secondary risk is that reliable ATC services cannot be guaranteed. The past few years have seen regular ATS and radar outages across the HLLL FIR airspace, and severe limitations in VHF capability, with operators having to communicate with Malta ATC for guidance.
Major events: Jan 2020: Multiple airstrikes targeting HLLM/Tripoli Mitiga airport. Videos on social media showing planes landing at the airport as shells are falling in the background. Nov 2019: Militia advancing on the capital, Tripoli, declared a no-fly-zone around the city, threatening to shoot-down civil aircraft attempting to fly to HLLM/Tripoli Mitiga airport. Oct 2019: The US issued an emergency order prohibiting US operators from overflying the HLLL/Tripoli FIR except for altitudes at or above FL300 “outside of Libyan territorial airspace” - which is basically the international airspace over the southern Mediterranean Sea that is managed by Libya.
Read: Libya Airspace Update, Oct 2019 (OPSGROUP article)
Syria
The primary risk is a misident by Syrian air defense systems. Civil aircraft may be targeted in error, or caught in crossfire during ongoing air attacks involving Israel, Russia, Iran. Missiles may erroneously lock on to civil aircraft. Israeli airstrikes on Syria are regular, and do not show any regard for civil traffic. There is a clear risk to civil aircraft operating on airways UL620, UW74, UR18, and UP62. In simple terms, if you find yourself planned overwater east of Cyprus, reconsider your route.
Major events: Sep 2018: Russian IL-20 shot down in error on FIR boundary with Cyprus (Nicosia FIR) - airline flights on UL620 within 50nm of this position. Feb 2020: An A320 enroute OSDI/Damascus caught in crossfire during attack by 4 Israeli F-16’s, forced to divert to Russian controlled air base. Read: OpsGroup Note -Syria, Sep 2018 (PDF)

LEVEL 2: Assessed Risk
Assessed Risk applies to countries that are the subject of airspace warnings by EASA, FAA, UK DFT, German BMVI, French DGAC, but only for specific portions or below certain altitudes
South Sudan
The primary risk now comes from poor levels of ATC provision for overflights below FL245 or for aircraft operating to HSSJ/Juba airport. In Jan 2021, ICAO published a letter warning of service disruptions and lack of qualified ATC personnel, the lack of contingencies in place, communication issues, the number of withdrawn navigation aids and above all, the lack of information being supplied to operators regarding these issues.
Major events:
April 2019: Military coup in Sudan led to the temporary closure of South Sudan’s airspace.
June 2016: The South Sudanese army declared intention to shoot down aircraft without permits and/or not following proper procedures.
Ethiopia
Sep 2018: Risk due to hidden ATC strike. Ethiopian ATC controllers went on strike, and the ECAA and Ethiopian Airlines recruited both retired and foreign controllers to pick up the slack. Ethiopia denied several times that there was in fact a strike happening at all. The strike ended September 7th. Many were not qualified to operate in Ethiopian airspace, due to inexperience.

Eritrea
Mali
Meanwhile, the Northern Mali conflict continues, and there have been no improvements in stability. The US, Germany, France and the UK all have warnings in place, advising to operate FL250/260 or higher, and avoiding GATB, GAGO, and GAKL airports. We would suggest, as usual, that a higher level closer to FL300 is more sensible.
Senegal and Niger control the airspace over Mali, and they have long-standing Notams (published under the GOOO/Dakar and DRRR/Niamey FIRs) warning that you can only fly between FL320-400 through the entire airspace in Mali north of the GABS/Bamako TMA due to military ops across the region.
Somalia
An Embraer EMB-120 was shot down while on approach to Bardale airstrip on May 4, 2020, killing all six people on board - an accidental shoot-down by Ethiopian forces stationed in the region.
Sudan
Egypt
-July 2019: British Airways suspends Cairo operations for one week due to security concerns
-In February 2017 an an SA-7 anti-aircraft missile tube was found less than a mile from HECA/Cairo airport.
-In October 2015 a Russian A321 was brought down over the Sinai peninsula by a bomb loaded at HESH/Sharm El Sheikh. The group claimed the IED was placed aboard the aircraft prior to departing HESH, raising concerns of potential insider threats at the airport.
There remains a threat from terrorism in Egypt, particularly in the Sinai Peninsular - most countries advise against operating to airports in this region, as well as overflights below FL260.
Venezuela
North Korea
However, in May 2019 North Korea resumed launching missiles into the Sea of Japan, without providing any warning by Notam.
The U.S. continues to prohibit flights across all North Korean airspace, including the oceanic part of the ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR over the Sea of Japan.
In December 2019, Germany issued a new warning Notam for North Korea, as they made threats to launch long rang missiles.
Saudi Arabia
Pakistan
Kenya
Ukraine
First: arms fire. Including MH17, multiple aircraft (the others all military) have been shot down since the beginning of the Donbass region war in 2014. Multiple ceasefires have been declared and violated. This risk is contained within the Dnipropetrovsk FIR – UKDV.
The second issue affects the Simferopol FIR which is Disputed Airspace. (Ukraine:UKFV, Russia:URFV). In March 2014, Russia annexed Crimea. The ATC Center is in Simferopol, Crimea, and is now run by Russia. Russia claims the airspace. Ukraine refuses to recognise the change, and asks crews to talk to Ukrainian controllers in Dnipro/Odesa ACC instead of Simferopol ACC. So the risk here stems from aircraft potentially receiving confusing and conflicting air traffic control instructions from both Ukrainian and Russian ATC when operating over the region.
Afghanistan
LEVEL 3 : Caution
Caution applies to countries that do not have multiple current airspace warnings, but we consider worthy of a security review before operating into or over
Azerbaijan
The primary risk is from any large-scale ceasefire violations involving missiles or anti-aircraft weaponry. So far, we have not seen anything like this - just minor skirmishes on the ground in the Nagorno-Karabakh region along the southern border between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Major events: Sep/Oct 2020: Conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan led to large sections of closed airspace along the northern border. UBBA/Baku issued a Notam warning of threat posed by long-range missiles which they claimed Armenia had been using to target locations throughout Azerbaijan. Germany issued Notams warning of a potential risk to aviation from military operations including anti aviation weaponry. Dec 2020: Direct crossing traffic is now technically possible again. However, for the time being, most East-West flights are currently still electing to go further north instead (connecting between Azerbaijan and Georgia’s airspace, avoiding Armenia).
Read: Armenia/Azerbaijan Airspace Update, Dec 2020 (OPSGROUP article)

Armenia
The primary risk is from any large-scale ceasefire violations involving missiles or anti-aircraft weaponry. So far, we have not seen anything like this - just minor skirmishes on the ground in the Nagorno-Karabakh region along the southern border between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Major events: Sep/Oct 2020: Conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan led to large sections of closed airspace along the northern border. UBBA/Baku issued a Notam warning of threat posed by long-range missiles which they claimed Armenia had been using to target locations throughout Azerbaijan. Germany issued Notams warning of a potential risk to aviation from military operations including anti aviation weaponry. Dec 2020: Direct crossing traffic is now technically possible again. However, for the time being, most East-West flights are currently still electing to go further north instead (connecting between Azerbaijan and Georgia’s airspace, avoiding Armenia).
Read: Armenia/Azerbaijan Airspace Update, Dec 2020 (OPSGROUP article)
