31 Oct 2020 World Airspace Risk Summary Print

Risk Summary
31 Oct 2020

ISSUED BY OPSGROUP
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Danger

In assessing risk to flight over each countries borders, two scenarios are predominant for civil flight:
1. Risk of shootdown, inadvertent or intentional.
2. Aircraft emergency requiring a landing.

Both these elements are taken into consideration in determining a classification. The highest level of risk here is “Moderate”, on the basis that calling it “high” or “severe” would exaggerate the actual level or risk in landing or overflying the territories concerned.

Classification

Three levels of airspace risk are used in our assessment.
LEVEL 1. Moderate risk - No Fly
LEVEL 2. Assessed risk
LEVEL 3. Caution

A current overflight risk map is maintained at safeairspace.net. We encourage operators to report any new information to report@safeairspace.net.

Guidance

This document is intended to provide operator guidance in determining whether to avoid specific airspaces. Exclusion from this advice, naturally, does not mean that other airspace is risk free.

Information Sources

The countries that issue the most relevant updates for unsafe airspace are:

  • US (FAA) – through Notams and SFARs
  • UK (DFT) – AIP
  • Germany (BMVI) – Notam
  • France (DGAC) - AIC

Operators should note that in general, the Civil Aviation Authorities of the countries whose airspace is determined to be unsafe are unlikely to issue reliable guidance. Read more at safeairspace.net.

LEVEL 1: Moderate Risk - No Fly

For these countries, the basis for inclusion is the highly unstable current events on the ground, and in all cases the ground factions having access to MANPADS or SAMS. We strongly recommend avoiding this airspace entirely. All countries have multiple warnings, and your country of registry is likely to have issued specific instructions not to penetrate these airspaces

Iraq
There was an Iranian missile strike on US military bases in Iraq on Jan 8, quickly followed by the shooting down of Ukraine Int Airlines flight 752 in Tehran by the Iranian Armed Forces, having mistaken the aircraft radar return for an inbound missile to Tehran.

In the days following these events, many countries issued warnings to avoid the airspace of Iraq completely. Though some of these countries have since issued updated advice allowing overflights to resume at the higher flight levels, the US flight ban on Iraqi airspace was re-imposed on March 12, citing “heightened militia activities and increased tensions”.

Most airlines other than Middle Eastern carriers have now stopped overflying Iraq entirely. Traffic that normally operates through the Baghdad FIR now needs another route. The predominant choice for east-west flights into the Dubai area is a southerly routing via Saudi Arabia and Egypt. There are warnings for both of these airspaces as well. Northerly reroutes for Europe-Asia flights are predominantly using a Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan routing.

The aviation security picture in the Middle East, already fragile and unstable, is now unpredictable. For many operators, you may be starting to use routes that are unfamiliar and not before flown. Take the time to ensure your crews have the full package of charts, are aware of the risks in each FIR, are aware of the potential for GPS outages en-route (especially in the Turkish FIR), and have considered drift down over mountainous areas on the northerly routes.
26Oct20 Germany Notam B1698/20 Overflights should be at FL260 or above.
16Oct20 USA SFAR 77 US operators are prohibited from overflying the Baghdad FIR below FL320. However, the long running FAA Notam (KICZ A0036/20) which completely bans traffic at all levels still stands. The difference between the two is added flexibility should the security situation improve. Based on a recent flare up in hostilities between local militia and US forces, this is unlikely to happen anytime soon.
17Jun20 Ukraine Notam A1970/20 Ukranian operators are prohibited from overflying Iraq
22Apr20 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) UK operators should not overfly the Baghdad FIR, except on airways UL602 to ALPET, UM860 and UM688, when operating above 25,000ft AGL. (The previous Notam issued by the UK on 9th Jan 2020, advising UK operators that they must not enter the Baghdad FIR, is now cancelled).
09Apr20 France AIC 16/20 Overflights should only be on airways UM860 and UM688, and UL602 between TASMI and ALPET. Fly at or above FL320.
13Mar20 Canada Notam H0655/20 Operators should not enter the airspace of Iraq
12Mar20 USA Notam KICZ A0036/20 US operators are prohibited from overflying Iraq
08Jan20 Iraq Notam A0018/20 Iraq issues warning to operators that Iran fired missiles into the ORBB/Baghdad FIR, altitude and trajectory unknown.
29Jul18 South Africa Notam A2919/18 Overflights should be above FL300
Syria
Since March 2011, Syria has been embroiled in an armed conflict, with a number of countries in the region and beyond involved militarily or otherwise. Syria is ranked last on the Global Peace Index, making it the most violent country in the world due to the war.

September 2018 - Russian military aircraft shot down on the border between Damascus and Nicosia FIR.

Israel carries out occasional airstrikes on Syrian territory. Russia has accused the Israeli military of putting commercial flights at risk, by timing their airstrikes on Syria too close to flights arriving at Beirut and Damascus airports. On Feb 6, a commercial A320 flight en-route to Damascus was forced to divert to Russia-controlled Khmeimim air base to avoid coming under fire from Syrian air defences. Damascus ATC instructed the plane to divert, as the Syrian air defence systems engaged four Israeli F-16s, and the civilian aircraft could have found itself in the crossfire.

Almost no traffic overflies Syria, and it should be avoided.
29Jun20 Germany Notam B1239/20 Flights are prohibited in Syrian airspace
09Apr20 France AIC 16/20 Operators should avoid Syrian airspace.
09Feb20 Canada Notam H0330/20 Canadian operators advised not to enter the airspace of Syria, and there is a potential risk to aircraft within 200nm of the Damascus FIR.
10Dec18 USA Notam KICZ A0025/18 US operators are prohibited from entering Syrian airspace.
22Oct18 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) Potential risk to aircraft within 200nm of the Damascus FIR.
14Apr18 USA Notam KICZ A0009/18 Exercise caution within 200nm of the Damascus FIR due to military activity. Possibility of GPS Interference, Communication jamming, and long-range surface to air missiles in the area.
12Jun15 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) Potential risk to aircraft over Syria airspace at all flight levels.
Iran
The shooting down of Ukraine Int Airlines flight 752 has been confirmed by Iran to have been carried out by the Iranian Armed Forces, having mistaken the aircraft radar return for an inbound missile to Tehran.

As clarity of cause emerged, many countries have slowly issued warnings to avoid the airspace of Iran and Iraq. We now classify both these countries as Level 1 - Do Not Fly airspace. Tehran and Baghdad FIRs are off limits. Operating to airports in either Iraq or Iran is equally unadvisable.

Just hours prior to the shoot-down of the Ukraine Int Airlines flight in Tehran on Jan 8, the US FAA issued “Emergency Order” Notams banning all US operators from overflying the airspace of Iraq and Iran. This was in response to an Iranian missile strike on US military bases in Iraq, which had just occurred the same night.

Other countries have since issued warnings: the UK, Ukraine, Canada, Germany, and France.

Most airlines other than Middle Eastern carriers have now stopped overflying Iran entirely. The aviation security picture in the Middle East, already fragile and unstable, is now unpredictable. For many operators, you may be starting to use routes that are unfamiliar and not before flown. Take the time to ensure your crews have the full package of charts, are aware of the risks in each FIR, are aware of the potential for GPS outages enroute (especially in the Turkish FIR), and have considered drift down over mountainous areas on the northerly routes.
30Oct20 Germany Notam B1692/20 Exercise caution in the Tehran FIR due to risk posed by anti-aircraft weaponry.
29Oct20 USA SFAR 117 This gives a lot of background info and in-depth detail of the airspace risk in Iran, but it’s basically just a longer version of their old KICZ Notam A0002/20, and the rules haven’t changed - US operators are prohibited from overflying the OIIX/Tehran FIR.
17Jun20 Ukraine Notam A1970/20 Ukranian operators are prohibited from overflying Iran
20May20 UK Notam V0016/20 UK operators should not overfly the Tehran FIR below 25,000ft AGL
09Apr20 France AIC 16/20 Operators should not overfly the western half of the country (everywhere west of 54 Degrees East longitude); overflights of the eastern half should be at or above FL320.
17Feb20 USA Notam KICZ A0016/20 US operators should exercise caution in the overwater airspace in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Avoid the airways nearest to the OIIX/Tehran FIR whenever possible, to reduce the risk of miscalculation or misidentification by air defence systems.
11Jan20 Canada Notam H0047/20 Canadian operators advised not to enter the airspace of Iran
08Jan20 USA Notam KICZ A0002/20 US operators are prohibited from overflying Iran
22Jun19 Italy Notam LIXX A4578/2019 Unsafe situation in Persian Gulf
22Jun19 India DGCA Notice 22JUN19 Indian aircraft operators required to avoid 'affected' part of Iranian airspace.
21Jun19 UAE Safety Decision 2019-04 Risk to UAE Operators over Gulf, required to conduct risk assessment for overwater area of Tehran FIR.
Libya
In Oct 2019, the US issued an emergency order prohibiting US operators from overflying the HLLL/Tripoli FIR except for altitudes at or above FL300 “outside of Libyan territorial airspace” - which is basically the international airspace over the southern Mediterranean Sea that is managed by Libya.

This followed months of civil war in Libya, with militia from the East mounting a campaign to seize control of Tripoli, including HLLM airport, and threatening to shoot down aircraft operating in western Libya.

In recent months there have been a number of airstrikes targeting HLLM/Tripoli Mitiga airport. There are videos on social media showing planes landing at the airport as shells are falling in the background. In Nov 2019, militia advancing on the capital, Tripoli, declared a no-fly-zone around the city, and there is now a very real chance that they will shoot-down civil aircraft attempting to fly to HLLM/Tripoli Mitiga airport.

Risk remains high across Libya at all flight levels, and avoidance of all airspace and airports is strongly recommended.
20Sep20 Germany Notam B1520/20 German operators are prohibited from overflying Libyan airspace. Do not enter any part of the HLLL/Tripoli FIR at any flight level. (Their previous warning, which expired in March 2020, only prohibited overflights in the north-west part of the country.)
27Jul20 USA SFAR 112 US operators are prohibited from overflying the HLLL/Tripoli FIR except for altitudes at or above FL300 “outside of Libyan territorial airspace” - which is basically the international airspace over the southern Mediterranean Sea that is managed by Libya.
09Apr20 France AIC 16/20 Operators should avoid Libyan airspace.
18Feb20 Canada Notam G0171/20 Canadian operators advised not to enter the airspace of Libya
12Jun15 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) Operators should avoid Libyan airspace.
Yemen
Yemen is another country with ongoing conflict. Overflying and operating to Yemen is off limits. There have been several ground to ground missile attacks from Yemen into Saudi Arabia. The oceanic portion of the OYSC/Sanaa FIR (Airways UT702, M999, N315, UL425, UM551 and R401) is excluded from most warnings, by nature of being offshore.
14Aug20 Germany Notam B1356/20 German operators are prohibited from operating on airways over the Yemen landmass within the OYSC/Sanaa FIR.
09Apr20 France AIC 16/20 Operators should avoid Yemeni airspace.
11Dec19 USA SFAR 115 US operators are prohibited from overflying the OYSC/Sanaa FIR except on oceanic airways UT702 and M999.
11Dec19 USA Notam KICZ A0030/19 As per SFAR 115, US operators are prohibited from overflying the OYSC/Sanaa FIR except on oceanic airways UT702 and M999.
08Sep15 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) Operators should avoid Yemen airspace, except airways N315, UL425 and R401.

LEVEL 2: Assessed Risk

Assessed Risk applies to countries that are the subject of airspace warnings by EASA, FAA, UK DFT, German BMVI, French DGAC, but only for specific portions or below certain altitudes

Armenia
The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia continues to escalate. The situation is volatile with both countries indicating they are close to declaring outright war. The flare-up in hostilities has centred around the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region to the south, as well as the Tavush region along the northern border. Both countries have exchanged artillery fire and drone attacks.

In July 2020, both France and Germany issued airspace warnings for this border region. The French warning is still in effect as of Sept 2020, saying that overflights should be at FL340 or above.

The most recent fighting is the heaviest seen in the long-running conflict since 2016. With no immediate cessation of the conflict in sight, we recommend operators avoid the border region between Azerbaijan and Armenia until the airspace safety picture improves.
04Oct20 Armenia Notam UDDD A0115/20 Caution advised in the border region between Azerbaijan and Armenia due to ongoing conflict.
23Jul20 France AIC 16/20 Operators should not overfly Armenia east of 44’45 East longitude.
17Jul20 Germany Notam B1281/20 Caution advised in the UDDD/Yerevan FIR due to escalation in military ops along the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan including anti-aircraft weaponry. (This Notam has since been rescinded, but for the short term we are still listing it here for reference.)
Azerbaijan
The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia continues to escalate. The situation is volatile with both countries indicating they are close to declaring outright war. The flare-up in hostilities has centred around the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region to the south, as well as the Tavush region along the northern border. Both countries have exchanged artillery fire and drone attacks.

In July 2020, both France and Germany issued airspace warnings for this border region. The French warning is still in effect as of Sept 2020, saying that overflights should be at FL340 or above.

The most recent fighting is the heaviest seen in the long-running conflict since 2016. With no immediate cessation of the conflict in sight, we recommend operators avoid the border region between Azerbaijan and Armenia until the airspace safety picture improves.
05Oct20 Azerbaijan Notam UBBA A0131/20 Caution advised in the UBBA/Baku FIR due to the spillover of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Specific warning of threat posed by long-range missiles, which they claim Armenia has used to target locations throughout Azerbaijan.
23Jul20 France AIC 16/20 Operators should not overfly the border region with Armenia in the western part of Azerbaijan west of 47’20 East longitude, except for certain airways in the far north of the UBBA/Baku FIR at FL340 or above.
17Jul20 Germany Notam B1280/20 Caution advised in the UBBA/Baku FIR due to escalation in military ops along the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan including anti-aircraft weaponry. (This Notam has since been rescinded, but for the short term we are still listing it here for reference.)
11Feb11 Azerbaijan Notam UBBA A0024/11 Azerbaijan’s long-standing Notam warning of prohibited airspace over Nagorno-Karabakh, an area located in the south-west of Azerbaijan labelled on airway charts as ‘UBP3’. Although this area falls under the Baku FIR, it’s a de facto independent state with Armenian backing. Azerbaijan and neighbouring Armenia have a long-standing dispute over the possession of this area. There’s a heavy military presence here, and drones are frequently shot down.
Mali
Bamako Airport has reopened following last week’s military coup which overthrew the government, though monitor GOOO/Dakar FIR and GABS/Bamako Airport Notams for further - it may change. The Bamako TMA (which sits under the GOOO/Dakar FIR) remains operational with overflights unaffected.

Meanwhile, the Northern Mali conflict continues, and there have been no improvements in stability. The US, Germany, France and the UK all have warnings in place, advising to operate FL250/260 or higher, and avoiding GATB, GAGO, and GAKL airports. We would suggest, as usual, that a higher level closer to FL300 is more sensible.

Senegal and Niger control the airspace over Mali, and they have long-standing Notams (published under the GOOO/Dakar and DRRR/Niamey FIRs) warning that you can only fly between FL320-400 through the entire airspace in Mali north of the GABS/Bamako TMA due to military ops across the region.
17Sep20 Germany Notam B1559/20 Avoid GATB, GAGO, GAMB and GAKL airports. Overflights should be at FL260 or above.
09Apr20 France AIC 16/20 Overflights should be at FL320 or above.
26Feb20 USA Notam A0019/20 Exercise caution if operating below FL260 in Mali's airspace. If you plan to, notify the FAA 3 days in advance.
26Feb20 USA US FAA Background Notice Exercise caution if operating below FL260 in Mali's airspace.
09Jun17 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) Risk to aircraft overflying Mali airspace below FL250.
Sudan
Only one international warning exists, that of France, recommending overflight above FL200 in the far southern and western edges of the country (west of the 27°E and south of 13°N) near to the border with South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Chad.  Sudan temporarily closed its airspace all day on 11 April 2019 following a military coup which ousted the country’s longtime President Omar al-Bashir from power. This came after months of on-and-off protests against his rule.  The security situation in Khartoum has been steadily improving since then, and in Sept 2019, the US downgraded its travel advisory for Sudan from “Level 4: Do Not Travel” to “Level 3: Reconsider Travel”. HSSS/Khartoum airport was closed for five hours late on 14 Jan 2020 following gunfire on the streets of the capital, including in areas close to the airport. The clashes were between the army and former security agents who revolted over severance pay. The airport reopened the next day, with the government saying the violence was over and the situation was under control.
09Apr20 France AIC 16/20 Maintain FL260 or higher in the HSSS/Sudan FIR along its southern edge (where Sudan borders with South Sudan) and western edge (where Sudan borders with Central African Republic and Chad).
Egypt
Since the Arab Spring, Egypt’s stability and security situation as a state has declined.

-July 2019: British Airways suspends Cairo operations for one week due to security concerns
-In February 2017 an an SA-7 anti-aircraft missile tube was found less than a mile from HECA/Cairo airport.
-In October 2015 a Russian A321 was brought down over the Sinai peninsula by a bomb loaded at HESH/Sharm El Sheikh. The group claimed the IED was placed aboard the aircraft prior to departing HESH, raising concerns of potential insider threats at the airport.

There remains a threat from terrorism in Egypt, particularly in the Sinai Peninsular - most countries advise against operating to airports in this region, as well as overflights below FL260.
11Aug20 Germany Notam B1346/20 Updated German Notam: Entire Sinai Peninsula presents a risk below FL260 for overflights and landings, with a particular focus on the northern part (they define this northern part as everywhere above 2930N03240E).
30Mar20 USA Notam KICZ A0040/20 Avoid overflying the Sinai Peninsula below FL260; if planning to do so, provide 3 days notice to the FAA.
30Mar20 USA US FAA Background Notice Avoid overflying the Sinai Peninsula below FL260
04Mar20 Ireland Notam B0152/20 Avoid overflying the Sinai Peninsula below FL260
25Mar19 Egypt Notam A0266/18 Do not plan RNAV approaches at Cairo.
08Oct15 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) Risk to aircraft overfly Egypt's Northern Sinai region at less than FL250.
Venezuela
Ongoing political and social crisis in Venezuela. On 1st May 2019, the US FAA issued a new Do Not Fly instruction to US operators, barring all operations into or over Venezuela, unless operating at or above FL260, and giving a window of 48 hours to leave the country. The order comes on a day of an information battle waged between Maduro and Guaidó, and although the coup status is uncertain, one thing is clear: taking your aircraft to Venezuela is not a good idea.
01May19 USA Notam KICZ A0013/19 Flights are prohibited below FL260
North Korea
Following talks with the U.S. in early 2018, North Korea agreed with ICAO that it would provide adequate warning of all “activity hazardous to aviation" within its airspace.

However, in May 2019 North Korea resumed launching missiles into the Sea of Japan, without providing any warning by Notam.

The U.S. continues to prohibit flights across all North Korean airspace, including the oceanic part of the ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR over the Sea of Japan.

In December 2019, Germany issued a new warning Notam for North Korea, as they made threats to launch long rang missiles.
09Sep20 Germany Notam B1484/20 There is a potential risk to overflights of North Korean airspace (ZKKP FIR) due to launching of test missiles without prior notice.
07Sep20 USA SFAR 79 Flights are prohibited in all North Korean airspace, including the oceanic part of the ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR over the Sea of Japan, due to the threat posed by unannounced North Korean missile launches and air defense weapons systems.
09Apr20 France AIC 16/20 Caution advised for all North Korea overflights, especially in the maritime part over the Sea of Japan (i.e. due to unannounced rocket launches)
18Sep18 USA Notam KICZ A0018/18 This is just a pointer Notam, directing people to read the SFAR which contains complete information about the US restrictions on North Korean airspace.
08Oct15 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) There is a risk to aircraft overflying ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR, and the Sea of Japan.
Saudi Arabia
Due to military activity related to the involvement in Yemen, as well as ground to ground missile strikes, it is suggested to avoid the southwestern region of the Jeddah FIR. However, airports in the north, such as OEJN/Jeddah and OERK/Riyadh, are still very much on the radar for the Houthis, who launched missile attacks against these airports on multiple occasions throughout 2018. There is definitely a risk to operations in Saudi airspace, even outside the SCATANA area.
26Oct20 Germany Notam B1694/20 Potential risk to overflying or landing anywhere in Saudi Arabia, but particularly along the border with Yemen in the southwest part of the OEJD/Jeddah FIR.
09Apr20 France AIC 16/20 New France AIC, advice remains the same: Exercise caution in Saudi airspace, particularly in the southwest of the FIR; and do no operate to OEAB/Abha, OEGN/Jazan, OENG/Nejran, OESH/Sharurah, OEWD/Wadi Al Dawasir and OEBH/Bisha airports.
11Oct18 Saudi Arabia Notam W0438/18 When a Notam like this is published, SCATANA rules become active in the southern part of Saudi Arabia.
Pakistan
Couple of issues: Conflict with India in the Kashmir region in the northeastern corner of Pakistan, and concentration of terrorist group representation in the country. Military activity by Pakistan and India in the disputed Kashmir region poses a potential inadvertent risk to aviation at all altitudes, particularly in the OPLR/Lahore FIR. The consensus among foreign authorities is to cross the OPLR/Lahore and OPKR/Karachi FIRs at higher flight levels. Diversion/Landing in Pakistan is recommended against. Avoid operating to OPPS/Peshawar and OPQT/Quetta airports - both are near the border with Afghanistan. OPKC/Karachi Airport was attacked in 2014.
26Oct20 Germany Notam B1695/20 Overflights should be at FL260 and above; potential risk of attacks at all airports in Pakistan.
09Apr20 France AIC 16/20 Overflights should be at FL260 or above.
30Dec19 USA Notam KICZ A0034/19 Exercise caution flying into or over Pakistan, particularly at low altitudes, due to the risk posed by small-arms fire, attacks against airports, indirect weapons fire and anti-aircraft fire by extremist/militant elements operating in the country.
30Dec19 USA US FAA Background Notice Exercise caution flying into or over Pakistan.
08Oct15 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) Risk to aircraft overflying OPKC/Karachi and OPLR/Lahore FIRs below FL250.
South Sudan
The South Sudanese civil war has been ongoing since 2013. The security situation in Juba has been relatively calm since the July 2016 crisis. Daily reports of fighting throughout the rest of the country. Worsening civil war. July 17, 2017: State of emergency declared for 4 states in the NW of the country. ‘Anti aviation weaponry’ risk to overflights. In addition, the South Sudanese army has declared intention to shoot down Aircraft without permits. Most Authority guidance recommends min FL260. We think FL300 is a better minimum for overflights.
17Sep20 Germany Notam B1558/20 Overflights should be at FL260 or above.
09Apr20 France AIC 16/20 Overflights should be at FL260 or above, in the part of the HSSS/Sudan FIR above South Sudan.
08Aug18 USA Notam KICZ A0014/18 Exercise caution blow FL260 and give 3 days notice if overflying.
16Jun16 FSB Research Article Army of South Sudan will shoot down aircraft.
12Jun15 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) Risk to aircraft overflying South Sudan airspace below FL250.
Kenya
Kenya is affected by the ongoing Somali Civil War. There is a high threat from terrorism, including kidnapping. The main threat comes from extremists in response to Kenya’s military intervention in Somalia. IED attack at HKJK/Nairobi in 2014.
26Feb20 USA Notam A0022/20 Exercise caution below FL260 in Kenya's airspace east of 40 degrees East longitude (the border region with Somalia) due to extremist and militant activity.
26Feb19 USA US FAA Background Notice Exercise caution below FL260 in Kenya’s airspace east of 40 degrees East longitude (the border region with Somalia) due to extremist and militant activity.
12Aug16 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) Risk to aircraft overflying Kenya at less than FL250.
Somalia
Despite the ongoing conflict in Somalia the risk level is determined to be Assessed, the threats to aviation only exist below specified levels. However, our recommendation is to avoid the airspace entirely. The situation on the ground is highly unstable and there is an inherent risk to civilians and aircraft. The central government has little control of the major cities and ports with ongoing attacks from extremist militants targeting civilians. The advice from our information sources is all similar; “do not operate below a minimum of FL260 in the airspace of Somalia”. (Note UR401 SIHIL-AXINA is excluded from this by one authority) “There is a high risk to overflying aircraft from anti aviation weaponry”.

Possible shoot-down of an Embraer EMB-120 while on approach to Bardale airstrip on May 4, 2020, killing all six people on board. Local officials say the cause of the crash is not yet clear but there has been speculation it might have been shot down - either an intentional attack carried out by al-Shabab militants, or an accidental shoot-down by Ethiopian forces stationed in the region.
26Oct20 Germany Notam B1693/20 Do not operate to airports in Somalia, and do not overfly the airspace below FL260 except for UR401.
09Apr20 France AIC 16/20 Overflights should be at FL260 or above.
11Dec19 USA SFAR 107 US operators are prohibited operating below FL260 in the airspace of Somalia.
11Dec19 USA Notam KICZ A0028/19 US operators are prohibited operating below FL260 in the airspace of Somalia.
13Apr18 Somalia Notam A0035/18 Somalia themselves published a Notam in 2018 saying that armed conflict and a lack of Aeronautical information present a safety and security risk to aircraft.
08Jan16 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) Operators should avoid overflying Somalia airspace below FL250.
Ukraine
There are two risk issues in Ukraine.

First: arms fire. Including MH17, multiple aircraft (the others all military) have been shot down since the beginning of the Donbass region war in 2014. Multiple ceasefires have been declared and violated. This risk is contained within the Dnipropetrovsk FIR – UKDV.

The second issue affects the Simferopol FIR which is Disputed Airspace. (Ukraine:UKFV, Russia:URFV). In March 2014, Russia annexed Crimea. The ATC Center is in Simferopol, Crimea, and is now run by Russia. Russia claims the airspace. Ukraine refuses to recognise the change, and asks crews to talk to Ukrainian controllers in Dnipro/Odesa ACC instead of Simferopol ACC. So the risk here stems from aircraft potentially receiving confusing and conflicting air traffic control instructions from both Ukrainian and Russian ATC when operating over the region.
27Oct20 USA SFAR 113 This SFAR extends the ban on US operators overflying the eastern part of the UKDV/Dnipropetrovsk FIR for another year due to a continued threat of arms fire in the region. However, restrictions have now been completely lifted on overflights of the UKFV/Simferopol FIR, as the security situation has sufficiently improved there.
23Oct20 France AIC 16/20 Overflights of the UKFV and UKDV FIRs in the east of the country should only be planned over six Black Sea airways: M854, M856, M860, L851, M435, and M861.
26Feb20 USA Notam A0029/20 This is just a pointer Notam, directing people to read the SFAR which contains complete information about the US restrictions on Ukraine airspace.
25Apr19 Ukraine Notam A0920/19 Ukraine asks aircraft within Dnipro, Odesa, and Simferopol FIRs to only speak to Ukrainian ATC - callsigns Dnipro Radar and Odesa Radar. (Comment: for Simferopol, Russia says only talk to Russian ATC - hence the problem)
26Feb19 Russia Notam A0937/19 Russia declares iteself as the valid source of information for Simferopol FIR.
13Oct17 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) Operators should not enter UKDV/Dnipro or UKFV/Simferopol FIRs with the exception of airways L851, M856, M860, and M854.
20Feb15 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) Possible conflicting ATC instructions due to disputed airspace in the Simferopol FIR
Afghanistan
There is an ongoing war in Afghanistan, which since NATO’s withdrawal in December 2014, has been fought between the state and several factions. Diversion/Landing to Afghanistan – don’t. Nowhere is safe. Overflight advice averages out at a minimum FL250, though as with other mountainous countries we think FL320 is a better starting point. There are comms issues in the Kabul FIR – long periods without ATC contact is possible. Monitor TCAS and Air-to-Air channels.
24Sep20 Germany Notam B1587/20 Overflights should be at FL330 or above.
09Apr20 France AIC 16/20 Overflights should be at FL260 or above.
28Mar20 USA Notam KICZ A0038/20 Stick to airways, and maintain FL330 or higher. If you have to land at airports in the country, minimise ground time; aircraft on the ground have been damaged or destroyed by indirect rocket or mortar fire from militant attacks.
09Oct15 UK UK AIP ENR 1.1 (1.4.5) Risk to aircraft overflying OAKB/Kabul FIR at less than FL250.

LEVEL 3 : Caution

Caution applies to countries that do not have multiple current airspace warnings, but we consider worthy of a security review before operating into or over

Japan
In August 2017 it became apparent that North Korea missiles were landing with regularity in the Sea of Japan. In 2018, after North Korea's change in stance on Missile testing, coupled with a warmer relationship with the US, previously issued warnings started to be removed. The lsat such warning, US Notam A0010/18 expired on May 27, 2019, and has not been renewed.
27May18 USA Notam KICZ A0010/18 There is risk to aircraft flying in the RJJJ/Fukuoka FIR, and over The Sea of Japan.
United Arab Emirates
Missiles fired by Yemeni rebels (Houthis) have reached Saudi Arabia multiple times, and they have threatened to fire at the UAE. In April 2019 a spokesman for the Houthis said - "Our missiles are capable of reaching Riyadh and beyond Riyadh, to Dubai and Abu Dhabi."
23Jul20 United Arab Emirates Notam A1557/20 Risk from Houthi weapons targeting UAE territory
Chad
N'Djamena in the past was a popular fuel stop in central Africa, but multiple travel warnings now advise against travel here. No official state Notams have been issued, but danger remains high.  A state of emergency remains in place for the Lake Chad region. High threat for terrorism. Avoid landings.
Cyprus
Reports of GPS Interference began in March 2018 in the Nicosia FIR. In April 2018, the Nicosia FIR was being used as military staging for possible strikes in Syria, prompting EASA to issue a warning, and lead to avoidance of the FIR by many airlines.
30Mar18 Cyprus Notam 0356/18 Expect GPS interference in Cyprus Airspace.
22Mar18 Cyprus Notam N0068/18 GPS Outages have been reported in the Ercan Advisory Airspace.
Philippines
There has been a high volume of crew reports of GPS Interference in the Philippines, leading to GPS/ADS-B dropouts, especially in the vicinity of RPLL/Manila.
08May17 Philippines Notam B1584/17 Reports of GPS interference affecting RPLL/Manila Airport.
Turkey
Frequent reports from crews of GPS signal interference in Turkish airspace - with some as far away as abeam Baghdad. GPS jamming is common through the LTAA/Ankara FIR, and especially on the border between the ORBB/Baghdad and OIIX/Tehran FIRs. Operations to LTAJ/Gaziantep should be carefully reviewed given its proximity to the Syrian border.
22Jul20 Turkey Notam A3618/20 Expect GPS interference in Turkish Airspace.
Central African Republic
The situation on the ground in the Central African Republic is volatile and as of June 2017 has been deteriorating rapidly. There have been numerous attacks on Civilians and peacekeeping troops. Bangui FEFF is operating under UN control, it is subject to regular power outages and is also acting as a refugee camp. Avoid landings.