There was an Iranian missile strike on US military bases in Iraq on Jan 8, quickly followed by the shooting down of Ukraine Int Airlines flight 752 in Tehran by the Iranian Armed Forces, having mistaken the aircraft radar return for an inbound missile to Tehran.

In the days following these events, many countries issued warnings to avoid the airspace of Iraq completely. Though some of these countries have since issued updated advice allowing overflights to resume at the higher flight levels, the US flight ban on Iraqi airspace was re-imposed on March 12, citing “heightened militia activities and increased tensions”.

Most airlines other than Middle Eastern carriers have now stopped overflying Iraq entirely. Traffic that normally operates through the Baghdad FIR now needs another route. The predominant choice for east-west flights into the Dubai area is a southerly routing via Saudi Arabia and Egypt. There are warnings for both of these airspaces as well. Northerly reroutes for Europe-Asia flights are predominantly using a Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan routing.

The aviation security picture in the Middle East, already fragile and unstable, is now unpredictable. For many operators, you may be starting to use routes that are unfamiliar and not before flown. Take the time to ensure your crews have the full package of charts, are aware of the risks in each FIR, are aware of the potential for GPS outages en-route (especially in the Turkish FIR), and have considered drift down over mountainous areas on the northerly routes.

Since March 2011, Syria has been embroiled in an armed conflict, with a number of countries in the region and beyond involved militarily or otherwise. Syria is ranked last on the Global Peace Index, making it the most violent country in the world due to the war.

September 2018 - Russian military aircraft shot down on the border between Damascus and Nicosia FIR.

Israel carries out occasional airstrikes on Syrian territory. Russia has accused the Israeli military of putting commercial flights at risk, by timing their airstrikes on Syria too close to flights arriving at Beirut and Damascus airports. On Feb 6, a commercial A320 flight en-route to Damascus was forced to divert to Russia-controlled Khmeimim air base to avoid coming under fire from Syrian air defences. Damascus ATC instructed the plane to divert, as the Syrian air defence systems engaged four Israeli F-16s, and the civilian aircraft could have found itself in the crossfire.

Almost no traffic overflies Syria, and it should be avoided.

The shooting down of Ukraine Int Airlines flight 752 has been confirmed by Iran to have been carried out by the Iranian Armed Forces, having mistaken the aircraft radar return for an inbound missile to Tehran.

As clarity of cause emerged, many countries have slowly issued warnings to avoid the airspace of Iran and Iraq. We now classify both these countries as Level 1 - Do Not Fly airspace. Tehran and Baghdad FIRs are off limits. Operating to airports in either Iraq or Iran is equally unadvisable.

Just hours prior to the shoot-down of the Ukraine Int Airlines flight in Tehran on Jan 8, the US FAA issued “Emergency Order” Notams banning all US operators from overflying the airspace of Iraq and Iran. This was in response to an Iranian missile strike on US military bases in Iraq, which had just occurred the same night.

Other countries have since issued warnings: the UK, Ukraine, Canada, Germany, and France.

Most airlines other than Middle Eastern carriers have now stopped overflying Iran entirely. The aviation security picture in the Middle East, already fragile and unstable, is now unpredictable. For many operators, you may be starting to use routes that are unfamiliar and not before flown. Take the time to ensure your crews have the full package of charts, are aware of the risks in each FIR, are aware of the potential for GPS outages enroute (especially in the Turkish FIR), and have considered drift down over mountainous areas on the northerly routes.

In Oct 2019, the US issued an emergency order prohibiting US operators from overflying the HLLL/Tripoli FIR except for altitudes at or above FL300 “outside of Libyan territorial airspace” - which is basically the international airspace over the southern Mediterranean Sea that is managed by Libya.

This followed months of civil war in Libya, with militia from the East mounting a campaign to seize control of Tripoli, including HLLM airport, and threatening to shoot down aircraft operating in western Libya.

In recent months there have been a number of airstrikes targeting HLLM/Tripoli Mitiga airport. There are videos on social media showing planes landing at the airport as shells are falling in the background. In Nov 2019, militia advancing on the capital, Tripoli, declared a no-fly-zone around the city, and there is now a very real chance that they will shoot-down civil aircraft attempting to fly to HLLM/Tripoli Mitiga airport.

Risk remains high across Libya at all flight levels, and avoidance of all airspace and airports is strongly recommended.

Yemen is another country with ongoing conflict. Overflying and operating to Yemen is off limits. There have been several ground to ground missile attacks from Yemen into Saudi Arabia. The oceanic portion of the OYSC/Sanaa FIR (Airways UT702, M999, N315, UL425, UM551 and R401) is excluded from most warnings, by nature of being offshore.

The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia continues to escalate. The situation is volatile with both countries indicating they are close to declaring outright war. The flare-up in hostilities has centred around the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region to the south, as well as the Tavush region along the northern border. Both countries have exchanged artillery fire and drone attacks.

In July 2020, both France and Germany issued airspace warnings for this border region. The French warning is still in effect as of Sept 2020, saying that overflights should be at FL340 or above.

The most recent fighting is the heaviest seen in the long-running conflict since 2016. With no immediate cessation of the conflict in sight, we recommend operators avoid the border region between Azerbaijan and Armenia until the airspace safety picture improves.

The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia continues to escalate. The situation is volatile with both countries indicating they are close to declaring outright war. The flare-up in hostilities has centred around the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region to the south, as well as the Tavush region along the northern border. Both countries have exchanged artillery fire and drone attacks.

In July 2020, both France and Germany issued airspace warnings for this border region. The French warning is still in effect as of Sept 2020, saying that overflights should be at FL340 or above.

The most recent fighting is the heaviest seen in the long-running conflict since 2016. With no immediate cessation of the conflict in sight, we recommend operators avoid the border region between Azerbaijan and Armenia until the airspace safety picture improves.

Bamako Airport has reopened following last week’s military coup which overthrew the government, though monitor GOOO/Dakar FIR and GABS/Bamako Airport Notams for further - it may change. The Bamako TMA (which sits under the GOOO/Dakar FIR) remains operational with overflights unaffected.

Meanwhile, the Northern Mali conflict continues, and there have been no improvements in stability. The US, Germany, France and the UK all have warnings in place, advising to operate FL250/260 or higher, and avoiding GATB, GAGO, and GAKL airports. We would suggest, as usual, that a higher level closer to FL300 is more sensible.

Senegal and Niger control the airspace over Mali, and they have long-standing Notams (published under the GOOO/Dakar and DRRR/Niamey FIRs) warning that you can only fly between FL320-400 through the entire airspace in Mali north of the GABS/Bamako TMA due to military ops across the region.

Only one international warning exists, that of France, recommending overflight above FL200 in the far southern and western edges of the country (west of the 27°E and south of 13°N) near to the border with South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Chad.  Sudan temporarily closed its airspace all day on 11 April 2019 following a military coup which ousted the country’s longtime President Omar al-Bashir from power. This came after months of on-and-off protests against his rule.  The security situation in Khartoum has been steadily improving since then, and in Sept 2019, the US downgraded its travel advisory for Sudan from “Level 4: Do Not Travel” to “Level 3: Reconsider Travel”. HSSS/Khartoum airport was closed for five hours late on 14 Jan 2020 following gunfire on the streets of the capital, including in areas close to the airport. The clashes were between the army and former security agents who revolted over severance pay. The airport reopened the next day, with the government saying the violence was over and the situation was under control.

Since the Arab Spring, Egypt’s stability and security situation as a state has declined.

-July 2019: British Airways suspends Cairo operations for one week due to security concerns
-In February 2017 an an SA-7 anti-aircraft missile tube was found less than a mile from HECA/Cairo airport.
-In October 2015 a Russian A321 was brought down over the Sinai peninsula by a bomb loaded at HESH/Sharm El Sheikh. The group claimed the IED was placed aboard the aircraft prior to departing HESH, raising concerns of potential insider threats at the airport.

There remains a threat from terrorism in Egypt, particularly in the Sinai Peninsular - most countries advise against operating to airports in this region, as well as overflights below FL260.

Ongoing political and social crisis in Venezuela. On 1st May 2019, the US FAA issued a new Do Not Fly instruction to US operators, barring all operations into or over Venezuela, unless operating at or above FL260, and giving a window of 48 hours to leave the country. The order comes on a day of an information battle waged between Maduro and Guaidó, and although the coup status is uncertain, one thing is clear: taking your aircraft to Venezuela is not a good idea.

Following talks with the U.S. in early 2018, North Korea agreed with ICAO that it would provide adequate warning of all “activity hazardous to aviation" within its airspace.

However, in May 2019 North Korea resumed launching missiles into the Sea of Japan, without providing any warning by Notam.

The U.S. continues to prohibit flights across all North Korean airspace, including the oceanic part of the ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR over the Sea of Japan.

In December 2019, Germany issued a new warning Notam for North Korea, as they made threats to launch long rang missiles.

Due to military activity related to the involvement in Yemen, as well as ground to ground missile strikes, it is suggested to avoid the southwestern region of the Jeddah FIR. However, airports in the north, such as OEJN/Jeddah and OERK/Riyadh, are still very much on the radar for the Houthis, who launched missile attacks against these airports on multiple occasions throughout 2018. There is definitely a risk to operations in Saudi airspace, even outside the SCATANA area.

Couple of issues: Conflict with India in the Kashmir region in the northeastern corner of Pakistan, and concentration of terrorist group representation in the country. Military activity by Pakistan and India in the disputed Kashmir region poses a potential inadvertent risk to aviation at all altitudes, particularly in the OPLR/Lahore FIR. The consensus among foreign authorities is to cross the OPLR/Lahore and OPKR/Karachi FIRs at higher flight levels. Diversion/Landing in Pakistan is recommended against. Avoid operating to OPPS/Peshawar and OPQT/Quetta airports - both are near the border with Afghanistan. OPKC/Karachi Airport was attacked in 2014.

The South Sudanese civil war has been ongoing since 2013. The security situation in Juba has been relatively calm since the July 2016 crisis. Daily reports of fighting throughout the rest of the country. Worsening civil war. July 17, 2017: State of emergency declared for 4 states in the NW of the country. ‘Anti aviation weaponry’ risk to overflights. In addition, the South Sudanese army has declared intention to shoot down Aircraft without permits. Most Authority guidance recommends min FL260. We think FL300 is a better minimum for overflights.

Kenya is affected by the ongoing Somali Civil War. There is a high threat from terrorism, including kidnapping. The main threat comes from extremists in response to Kenya’s military intervention in Somalia. IED attack at HKJK/Nairobi in 2014.

Despite the ongoing conflict in Somalia the risk level is determined to be Assessed, the threats to aviation only exist below specified levels. However, our recommendation is to avoid the airspace entirely. The situation on the ground is highly unstable and there is an inherent risk to civilians and aircraft. The central government has little control of the major cities and ports with ongoing attacks from extremist militants targeting civilians. The advice from our information sources is all similar; “do not operate below a minimum of FL260 in the airspace of Somalia”. (Note UR401 SIHIL-AXINA is excluded from this by one authority) “There is a high risk to overflying aircraft from anti aviation weaponry”.

Possible shoot-down of an Embraer EMB-120 while on approach to Bardale airstrip on May 4, 2020, killing all six people on board. Local officials say the cause of the crash is not yet clear but there has been speculation it might have been shot down - either an intentional attack carried out by al-Shabab militants, or an accidental shoot-down by Ethiopian forces stationed in the region.

There are two risk issues in Ukraine.

First: arms fire. Including MH17, multiple aircraft (the others all military) have been shot down since the beginning of the Donbass region war in 2014. Multiple ceasefires have been declared and violated. This risk is contained within the Dnipropetrovsk FIR – UKDV.

The second issue affects the Simferopol FIR which is Disputed Airspace. (Ukraine:UKFV, Russia:URFV). In March 2014, Russia annexed Crimea. The ATC Center is in Simferopol, Crimea, and is now run by Russia. Russia claims the airspace. Ukraine refuses to recognise the change, and asks crews to talk to Ukrainian controllers in Dnipro/Odesa ACC instead of Simferopol ACC. So the risk here stems from aircraft potentially receiving confusing and conflicting air traffic control instructions from both Ukrainian and Russian ATC when operating over the region.

There is an ongoing war in Afghanistan, which since NATO’s withdrawal in December 2014, has been fought between the state and several factions. Diversion/Landing to Afghanistan – don’t. Nowhere is safe. Overflight advice averages out at a minimum FL250, though as with other mountainous countries we think FL320 is a better starting point. There are comms issues in the Kabul FIR – long periods without ATC contact is possible. Monitor TCAS and Air-to-Air channels.

In August 2017 it became apparent that North Korea missiles were landing with regularity in the Sea of Japan. In 2018, after North Korea's change in stance on Missile testing, coupled with a warmer relationship with the US, previously issued warnings started to be removed. The lsat such warning, US Notam A0010/18 expired on May 27, 2019, and has not been renewed.

Missiles fired by Yemeni rebels (Houthis) have reached Saudi Arabia multiple times, and they have threatened to fire at the UAE. In April 2019 a spokesman for the Houthis said - "Our missiles are capable of reaching Riyadh and beyond Riyadh, to Dubai and Abu Dhabi."

N'Djamena in the past was a popular fuel stop in central Africa, but multiple travel warnings now advise against travel here. No official state Notams have been issued, but danger remains high.  A state of emergency remains in place for the Lake Chad region. High threat for terrorism. Avoid landings.

Reports of GPS Interference began in March 2018 in the Nicosia FIR. In April 2018, the Nicosia FIR was being used as military staging for possible strikes in Syria, prompting EASA to issue a warning, and lead to avoidance of the FIR by many airlines.

There has been a high volume of crew reports of GPS Interference in the Philippines, leading to GPS/ADS-B dropouts, especially in the vicinity of RPLL/Manila.

Frequent reports from crews of GPS signal interference in Turkish airspace - with some as far away as abeam Baghdad. GPS jamming is common through the LTAA/Ankara FIR, and especially on the border between the ORBB/Baghdad and OIIX/Tehran FIRs. Operations to LTAJ/Gaziantep should be carefully reviewed given its proximity to the Syrian border.

The situation on the ground in the Central African Republic is volatile and as of June 2017 has been deteriorating rapidly. There have been numerous attacks on Civilians and peacekeeping troops. Bangui FEFF is operating under UN control, it is subject to regular power outages and is also acting as a refugee camp. Avoid landings.