Risk Level: Two - Danger exists

[ about risk levels ]
There is an ongoing active conflict in Ukraine between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Ukraine closed its entire airspace to all civil traffic on Feb 24. Russia and Belarus have closed large sections of their own airspace near to their FIR boundaries with Ukraine. Moldova initially closed all their airspace too, but have since opened a section on their western border with the LRBB/Bucharesti FIR for flights to LUKK/Chisinau airport.

The primary risk is an unintended targeting of civil aircraft by military near the Moldova-Ukraine border, including misidentification (as with MAS17, UIA752), or confusion.

Read: OPSGROUP article: Ukraine and Russia Update March 2022

Current warnings list :

Source Reference Issued Valid to
France AIC 24/22 17 Nov 2022 Ongoing
USA FAA Information Note Russia/Ukraine 14 Nov 2022 Ongoing
Moldova AIP SUP 02/23 17 Mar 2022 05 Apr 2023
Canada AIC 3/23 24 Feb 2022 Ongoing
Source: France
Reference: AIC 24/22
Issued: 17-Nov-22, valid until: Ongoing
Plain English: French operators should not enter the airspace of Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova; should also not enter the airspace of Russia within 200nm of the FIR boundaries with Ukraine.
From 17/11/2022 and until further notice, following the military invasion of Ukraine by the Russian federation which poses a high risk to civilian flights operating at all altitudes and at all flight levels, pilots in command of aircraft performing air services mentioned in paragraph 1.1 are requested :
-  not to enter within 200 NM of the Ukrainian border into the FIR MOSCOW (UUWV) and ROSTOV-NA-DONU (URRV)
-  exercise extreme caution when conducting flights beyond 200 NM of the Ukrainian borders in FIR MOSCOW (UUWV) and FIR ROSTOV-NA-DONU (URRV).
Source: USA
Issued: 14-Nov-22, valid until: Ongoing
Plain English: The Russia/Ukraine conflict spillover risk is increasing. Russia periodically launches missiles targeting Ukraine which transit Moldovan airspace. Reports of comms and GPS jamming outside the conflict zone, particularly over the Black Sea and Caspian Sea. Expanded drone activity, especially around Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
Title: FAA Information Note - Russia/Ukraine – Conflict Spillover Risks to U.S. Civil Aviation Increasing

Click the link for full text.
Source: Moldova
Reference: AIP SUP 02/23
Issued: 17-Mar-22, valid until: 05 Apr 2023
Plain English: Moldovan airspace (the LUUU/Chisinau FIR) was closed on Feb 24 due to the ongoing conflict in neighbouring Ukraine. But there is a section of airspace along the western border with the LRBB/Bucharesti FIR that is open for flights to LUKK/Chisinau airport.
Download AIP SUP 02/23 here.
Source: Canada
Reference: AIC 3/23
Issued: 24-Feb-22, valid until: Ongoing
Plain English: Canadian operators are prohibited from the airspace of Moldova.
Level 3 (prohibition)
SECURITY – HAZARDOUS SITUATION IN MOLDOVA. Canadian Air Operators and owners of aircraft registered in Canada are prohibited from entering FIR Chisinau (LUUU). Potential risk from anti-aviation weaponry and military operations.