Madagascar

Risk Level: No Warnings

Summary for Madagascar

Syria Level One - Do Not Fly

Since March 2011, Syria has been embroiled in an armed conflict, with a number of countries in the region and beyond involved militarily or otherwise. As a result, a number of self-proclaimed political entities have emerged on Syrian territory, including the Syrian opposition, Rojava, Tahrir al-Sham and Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. Syria is ranked last on the Global Peace Index, making it the most violent country in the world due to the war. September 2018 - Russian military aircraft shot down on the border between Damascus and Nicosia FIR. Israel carries out ocasional airstrikes on Syria territory. Almost no traffic overflies Syria, and it should be avoided.

Yemen Level One - Do Not Fly

Yemen is another country with ongoing conflict. Overflying and operating to Yemen is off limits. There have been several ground to ground missile attacks from Yemen into Saudi Arabia. The Oceanic portion of the Sana’a FIR, including Airways N315, UL425, UM551 and R401, is excluded from most warnings, by nature of being offshore.

Libya Level One - Do Not Fly

In April 2019, Libya was plunged into civil war again, with militia from the East mounting a campaign to seize control of Tripoli, including HLLM airport, and threatening to shoot down aircraft operating in western Libya. Risk remains high across Libya at all flight levels, and avoidance of all airspace and airports is strongly recommended.

Iran Level Two - Danger exists

Developments in Iran should be closely monitored, especially for US operators. On 21 Jun 2019, the US FAA issued an Emergency Order to US Civil Aircraft, prohibiting all operators from entering the Tehran FIR in the area above the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. This came after Iran shot down a US military drone the previous day over the Strait of Hormuz. The US say it was over international waters, Iran say it was within their FIR. Either way, SAM missiles are now being fired in the area and this increases the possibility of misidentification of aircraft.

The US had previously issued a Notam and Background Notice on 16 May 2019 advising operators to exercise caution in the overwater airspace above the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman region. The US deployed warships and aircraft to the Gulf, and several attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz were blamed on Iran.

Consider carefully overflights of the Tehran Fir (OIIX), as landings in Iran for US operators especially could be an issue. A Norwegian 737 was stuck in Iran for two months, due to sanctions around spare parts. The US says that Iran has publicly made threats to US military operations, and are concerned about "a possible risk of miscalculation or misidentification, especially during periods of heightened political tension and rhetoric". They also warn of increased GPS jamming by Iran throughout this region.

An older warning issued by the US in Sept 2018 also warns of the Iran overflight risk posed by missile launches fired from sites in the far west of the country against targets in Syria - these missiles also transit Iraq’s airspace (ORBB/Baghdad FIR), crossing over several busy international routes.

Venezuela Level Two - Danger exists

Ongoing political and social crisis in Venezuela. On 1st May 2019, the US FAA issued a new Do Not Fly instruction to US operators, barring all operations into or over Venezuela, unless operating at or above FL260, and giving a window of 48 hours to leave the country. The order comes on a day of an information battle waged between Maduro and Guaidó, and although the coup status is uncertain, one thing is clear: taking your aircraft to Venezuela is not a good idea.

Saudi Arabia Level Two - Danger exists

Due to military activity related to the involvement in Yemen, as well as ground to ground missile strikes, it is suggested to avoid the southwestern region of the Jeddah FIR. However, airports in the north, such as OEJN/Jeddah and OERK/Riyadh, are still very much on the radar for the Houthis, who launched missile attacks against these airports on multiple occasions throughout 2018. There is definitely a risk to operations in Saudi airspace, even outside the SCATANA area.

Sudan Level Two - Danger exists

Only one international warning exists, that of France, recommending overflight above FL200 in the far southern and western edges of the country (west of the 27°E and south of 13°N) near to the border with South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Chad.

Sudan temporarily closed its airspace all day on APR 11 following a military coup which ousted the country’s longtime President Omar al-Bashir from power. This came after months of on-and-off protests against his rule.

Although the airspace reopened on APR 12, the military has declared a three month state of emergency, and has deployed soldiers to secure key sites around Khartoum, with armoured vehicles and tanks parked in the streets.

Local handlers at the airport have told us: “The airport is now functioning normally with more security support”.

In response to the coup, the U.S. has now issued an updated Travel Advisory for Sudan and raised its level of advice from “Level 3: Reconsider Travel” to “Level 4: Do Not Travel.”

Pakistan Level Two - Danger exists

Couple of issues: Conflict with India in the Kashmir region in the northeastern corner of Pakistan, and concentration of terrorist group representation in the country. Military activity by Pakistan and India in the disputed Kashmir region poses a potential inadvertent risk to aviation at all altitudes, particularly in the OPLR/Lahore FIR. The consensus among foreign authorities is to cross the OPLR/Lahore and OPKR/Karachi FIRs at higher flight levels. Diversion/Landing in Pakistan is recommended against. Avoid operating to OPPS/Peshawar and OPQT/Quetta airports - both are near the border with Afghanistan. OPKC/Karachi Airport was attacked in 2014.

Egypt Level Two - Danger exists

Since the Arab Spring, Egypt’s stability and security situation as a state has declined.
-In February 2017 an an SA-7 anti-aircraft missile tube was found less than a mile from HECA/Cairo airport.
-In October 2015 a Russian A321 was brought down over the Sinai peninsula by a bomb loaded at HESH/Sharm El Sheikh. The group claimed the IED was placed aboard the aircraft prior to departing HESH, raising concerns of potential insider threats at the airport.

There remains a threat from terrorism in Egypt, particularly in the Sinai Peninsular - most countries advise against operating to airports in this region, as well as overflights below FL260.

South Sudan Level Two - Danger exists

The South Sudanese civil war has been ongoing since 2013. The security situation in Juba has been relatively calm since the July 2016 crisis. Daily reports of fighting throughout the rest of the country. Worsening civil war. July 17, 2017: State of emergency declared for 4 states in the NW of the country. ‘Anti aviation weaponry’ risk to overflights. In addition, the South Sudanese army has declared intention to shoot down Aircraft without permits. Most Authority guidance recommends min FL260. We think FL300 is a better minimum for overflights.

Kenya Level Two - Danger exists

Kenya is affected by the ongoing Somali Civil War. There is a high threat from terrorism, including kidnapping. The main threat comes from extremists in response to Kenya’s military intervention in Somalia. IED attack at HKJK/Nairobi in 2014.

Somalia Level Two - Danger exists

Despite the ongoing conflict in Somalia the risk level is determined to be Assessed, the threats to aviation only exist below specified levels. However, our recommendation is to avoid the airspace entirely. The situation on the ground is highly unstable and there is an inherent risk to civilians and aircraft. The central government has little control of the major cities and ports with ongoing attacks from extremist militants targeting civilians. The advice from our information sources is all similar; “do not operate below a minimum of FL240 in the airspace of Somalia”. (Note UR401 SIHIL-AXINA is excluded from this by one authority) “There is a high risk to overflying aircraft from anti aviation weaponry”.

Ukraine Level Two - Danger exists

There are two risk issues in Ukraine.

First: arms fire. Including MH17, multiple aircraft (the others all military) have been shot down since the beginning of the Donbass region war in 2014. Multiple ceasefires have been declared and violated. This risk is contained within the Dnipropetrovsk FIR – UKDV.

The second issue affects the Simferopol FIR which is Disputed Airspace. (Ukraine:UKFV, Russia:URFV). In March 2014, Russia annexed Crimea. The ATC Center is in Simferopol, Crimea, and is now run by Russia. Russia claims the airspace. Ukraine refuses to recognise the change, and asks crews to talk to Ukrainian controllers in Dnipro/Odesa ACC instead of Simferopol ACC. As the FAA point out, the risk here stems from aircraft “receiving confusing and conflicting air traffic control instructions from both Ukrainian and Russian ATC” when operating over the region.

Afghanistan Level Two - Danger exists

There is an ongoing war in Afghanistan, which since NATO’s withdrawal in December 2014, has been fought between the state and several factions. Diversion/Landing to Afghanistan – don’t. Nowhere is safe. Overflight advice averages out at a minimum FL250, though as with other mountainous countries we think FL320 is a better starting point. There are comms issues in the Kabul FIR – long periods without ATC contact is possible. Monitor TCAS and Air-to-Air channels.

Iraq Level Two - Danger exists

Until November 2017, we maintained a Level 1 – No Fly entry for Iraq. With a reduction in conflict on the ground, and more control in government hands, the airspace risk has reduced. Consequentially, foreign authorities are softening their stance on Iraq. On November 27, 2017, several international airlines (Emirates, Turkish) resumed Iraq overflights after their national authorities removed restrictions. Risk area remains in the Northwest, but airways UM860 and UM688 – running north/south in the eastern half of the FIR, are far less of a threat. All four countries who regularly publish conflict zone warnings (US, Germany, UK and France) have now issued new advice, allowing overflight of Iraq at certain flight levels.

Mali Level Two - Danger exists

The Northern Mali conflict continues, and there has been no improvements in stability. It remains the deadliest place to serve in the UN. US, Germany, and the UK all have warnings in place, advising to operate FL250/260 or higher, and avoiding GATB, GAGO, and GAKL airports.

Japan Level Three - Caution

In August 2017 it became apparent that North Korea missiles were landing with regularity in the Sea of Japan. In 2018, after North Korea's change in stance on Missile testing, coupled with a warmer relationship with the US, previously issued warnings started to be removed. The lsat such warning, US Notam A0010/18 expired on May 27, 2019, and has not been renewed.

United Arab Emirates Level Three - Caution

Missiles fired by Yemeni rebels (Houthis) have reached Saudi Arabia multiple times, and they have threatened to fire at the UAE. On April 23, 2019, a spokesman for the Houthis said -Our missiles are capable of reaching Riyadh and beyond Riyadh, to Dubai and Abu Dhabi-

North Korea Level Three - Caution

We removed our airspace warning guidance for North Korea in May 2018. Prior to this, we had identified there was a risk posed by unannounced long-range missile tests in the ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR, and we recommended avoiding the airspace entirely. But following the complete turnaround in political stance of North Korea in the months leading up to May 2018, it was our opinion that further test launches of missiles through the Pyongyang FIR were most unlikely. Around the same time, North Korea also agreed with ICAO that it would provide adequate warning of all “activity hazardous to aviation\" within its airspace.The U.S. continues to prohibit flights across all North Korean airspace, including the oceanic part of the ZKKP/Pyongyang FIR over the Sea of Japan.

Chad Level Three - Caution

N'Djamena in the past was a popular fuel stop in central Africa, but multiple travel warnings now advise against travel here. No official state Notams have been issued, but danger remains high. A state of emergency remains in place for the Lake Chad region. High threat for terrorism. Avoid landings.

Cyprus Level Three - Caution

Reports of GPS Interference began in March 2018 in the Nicosia FIR. In April 2018, the Nicosia FIR was being used as military staging for possible strikes in Syria, prompting EASA to issue a warning, and lead to avoidance of the FIR by many airlines.

Philippines Level Three - Caution

There has been a high volume of crew reports of GPS Interference in the Philippines, leading to GPS/ADS-B dropouts, especially in the vicinity of RPLL/Manila.

Turkey Level Three - Caution

Throughout 2016, there have been reports of GPS signal interference in Turkish airspace. This trend is continuing in 2017. Operations to LTAJ/Gaziantep should be carefully reviewed - proximate to Syrian border.

Central African Republic Level Three - Caution

The situation on the ground in the Central African Republic is volatile and as of June 2017 has been deteriorating rapidly. There have been numerous attacks on Civilians and peacekeeping troops. Bangui FEFF is operating under UN control, it is subject to regular power outages and is also acting as a refugee camp. Avoid landings.