Oct 2026: The UBBA/Baku FIR remains an important northern bypass for Europe-Asia traffic, with steady overflight demand as operators route around conflict-affected Middle East airspace.

See OPSGROUP Briefing: Middle East airspace situation - 2026

The primary risk is spillover from the wider regional conflict, especially drone or missile activity reaching the South Caucasus. The March 2026 strike on UBBN/Nakhchivan showed that local operations can be affected, even while the main overflight routes through the UBBA/Baku FIR remain available. Tensions with Armenia remain a background risk, although the two countries initialled a peace agreement in 2025 and continue working toward normalisation.



Major events:
Mar 2026: Drones from Iran struck UBBN/Nakhchivan, temporarily closing the southern UBBA/Baku FIR. Flights resumed on 9 March. Iran denied involvement.
Aug 2025: Armenia and Azerbaijan initialled a peace deal. Formal signing and normalisation are still pending.
Sep 2023: A ceasefire followed Azerbaijan’s takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh. Cross-border waypoints later reopened.
Sep 2022: Clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan temporarily closed border waypoints.
Sep-Oct 2020: War between Armenia and Azerbaijan brought widespread airspace closures and missile warnings.